TALKBET

Betting Success: From Failure & Patience

You don't simply wake up one morning from a good night's sleep and find you are an expert in XYZ. 

Sure, you see it in all the sci-fi films. It may well be the case (one day) that you can buy a magic pill which not only helps you lose weight but an upsell means within 24-hours flat you can speak fluent French.  I'm not sure if you have watched the film Vanilla Sky? That wasn't about buying a pill but more about living in a dream state until the day comes when science meant you could live again. In this world, as yet, you make your own future.  

Gambling. What does that word mean to you? Is it fun, pleasure, hard work or business?

Honestly, would you expect to wake up one day and be a pilot flying with the Red Arrows? Of course not. You would crash and burn before even getting into the air. 

Why should gambling be any different? It shouldn't. But you aren't going to crash and burn the first time you make a bet. You may think it is just a bit of fun. Heck, everyone does it. Sure, many people do bet but how many questions why they bet. What made them make that first decision? Who or what planted that seed?  

For me, I learned about gambling from my Dad. The thing is that you may be reading this and think you can finish my sentence... that it was a bad idea, I regret ever placing that first bet and it has ruined my life. Conversely, it happens to be one of the best things I ever did. 

I think the reason for this is to do with me rather than the seed that was planted. I am a good gambler because I am not a natural gambler. In that I mean, I never bet for fun. I looked upon it like studying for a degree. I wanted to know more because I had seen enough to consider I could make it pay. I know what it takes to gain a degree because I did so with Open University and have a Hons Degree in Psychology (Bsc). 

Everything is about discipline. My degree took 7 years. It was a marathon rather than a sprint. It was a lot of hard work. But I knew I would gain a degree even before I started the course. 

How?

Because I made the decision I would do it whatever.  And at that moment, it made the journey much shorter. I just had to put one foot in front of the other. I only ever saw a tutor on three separate occasions (when they asked me to attend a meeting) and I did all the work myself. Basically, I didn't need a tutor. Just the literature and someone to mark my assignments or exams. I gained a 2:1, a few percents short of a first. 

What did I learn? Anyone with basic intelligence can get a degree. It is a matter of hard work. Learning. 

How does my knowledge of betting compare with a degree? I know a lot more. If there was a course for gambling I would, without question, be a doctor. That may sound as though I am raving about this or that or showing off. I'm not saying it for that reason. Far from it. I don't need to impress anyone but myself. That's what is going to see me succeed or fail. What better motivation.  

To be a successful gambler you need to build a foundation of knowledge. You don't need to know everything. Who knows everything? Only a fool. 

What you need to know is your subject matter. To know it better than most. That is the level you need to meet. It will be found after failure and patience. It is a journey that can be whatever you make it because you set your own guidelines. You can learn for a decade without spending a penny. Your return a knowledge that gives you the opportunity to win when you decide to bet for all the right reasons.

Do you know what the right reason means? 

That you have enough understanding and confidence to make your betting pay. 

You wouldn't blindly buy stocks and shares without a valid reason. 

Until science fiction bumps into real life you need to realise you are as good as the time and effort you put into your own success. 

Good luck. 

Picture: a scene from Vanilla Sky

So Factual Wins Nunthorpe Stakes Group 1

Foaled on March 4, 1990, So Factual was sired by Known Fact, who was awarded the 2,000 Guineas in 1980 on the disqualification of Nureyev, but was primarily an influence for speed in his progeny. Bred, and originally owned, by Prince Khalid Abdullah, founder of Juddmonte Farms and trained, initially, by Guy Harwood at Coombelands Racing Stables in Pulborough, West Sussex, So Factual made his racing debut in a humble median auction graduation stakes race, over 6 furlongs, at Folkestone in June 1992. Ridden by Pat Eddery, he comfortably justified 4/5 favouritism, winning by 3½ lengths.

Just two weeks later, So Factual took a huge step up in class, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot but, even so, started only marginally third-favourite, at 11/2, and failed by just a short head to maintain his 100% record. He didn’t race again until October, when easily brushed aside, at odds of 1/3, in a run-of-the-mill condition stakes race at Pontefract.

However, on his reappearance the following April, in the European Free Handicap, over 7 furlongs, on the Rowley Mile Course at Newmarket, he proved that running all wrong. Help up in touch by Pat Eddery, he took the lead over a furlong out and ran on well to win by half a length. Stepped up to Group company, So Factual finished well beaten in the Duke of York Stakes, over 6 furlongs, at York and the Criterion Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Newmarket on his next two starts and wasn’t seen again in Britain for nearly a year.

In the meantime, he was sold to Godolphin and transferred to Saeed bin Suroor, who was in his first season in charge at Al Quoz Stables in Dubai and Godolphin Stables in Newmarket. After a 209-day break, So Factual enjoyed a successful winter in the United Arab Emirates, winning three minor handicaps at Nad Al Sheba, now Meydan, under Ray Cochrane. Cochrane was aboard again when he made his belated four-year-old debut in Britain, in the Cork and Orrery Stakes, over 6 furlongs, at Royal Ascot in June 1994; he finished second, beaten half a length, but didn’t race again until 313 days later, in May, 1995.

On his five-year-old debut, when ridden for the first time by Lanfranco ‘Frankie’ Dettori, So Factual finished second, beaten 3 lengths, behind Lake Coniston in the Duke of York Stakes at York. However, the following month, again ridden by Dettori, So factual reversed the form, beating Lake Coniston by a head, on the same terms, in the Cork and Orrery Stakes, to provide Saeed bin Suroor with his first Royal Ascot winner. Stepped up to Group One company for the first time, So Factual and Cochrane were soundly thrashed, to the tune of 10¼ lengths, by Lake Coniston, when only seven of nine in the July Cup at Newmarket the following month.

Nevertheless, on his next assignment at the highest level, reverting to 5 furlongs for just the second time in his career, in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, So Factual was to prove himself anything but a back number. Reunited with Dettori, who was returning from injury, he was sent off 9/2 third favourite of the eight runners, but never gave his supporters an anxious moment. Always going well, he quickened to lead on the outside over a furlong out and, despite hanging right in the closing stages, stayed on strongly to win by 1½ lengths. Ya Malak, who would dead-heat with Coastal Bluff in the same race two years later, finished second, with subsequent Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp winner Hever Golf Rose a further 1½ lengths away in third.

Mutlibet Strategy: Yankee, Canadian, Super Heinz....

Multibets. 

What do you think of them? For many punters, they are the worst bet ever created. Certainly, bookmakers love them. Why? Because most people lose unendingly. They bet, they lose. Money in the till. A joke bet!

It's pretty obvious finding two, three, four, five or more winners isn't easy. In fact, it's bloody difficult. But the positive side is that you can make a lot of money betting small stakes. The other aspect which makes sense for punters is that bookmakers welcome the bet. They aren't going to say no and that is a real strength for punters. 

I find that most punters fall into their own trap when it comes to making a multi bet. They take the fact they have a number of potential win opportunities as a reason to chance their arm. ''I'll pick a couple of half chances'' in the hope that they come in. It is a huge mistake. The strength of these bets is to wait until you have a few live chances on that day. I would go beyond that and dissect each selection and say look at them as if you were betting singles. 

If you feel any horse is going to struggle to get placed then leave it out. I know you are going to say of course I think it is going to get placed else why would I pick it? 

This is the point. You need to raise the bar of what you expect and what happens. I'm telling you know if you don't go close with your multi bet then, basically, you are doing something wrong. You are either pushing your luck too far or you aren't waiting for the right opportunities. 

I would suggest betting an each-way accumulator to hone your skills. Because if one horse is unplaced you will lose. This factor alone will make you re-assess what you are doing and whether you can reach this goal. If you can't select horses that are placed, at worst, on a regular basis you may as well give up.  

If you start placing on a regular basis, you know you have something going for you. An opportunity to make your betting pay.  

 

Saturday Tipping Competition: Bloody Good Winner!

I'm not sure if you have a competitive nature or not? 

I know I have a competitive nature. Not to the point of being selfish or stubborn but have confidence in my abilities. We all have strength and weakness. So why not revel or appreciate your ability. People do as they do. However, I don't think someone being outspoken of their ability is necessarily a bad thing. Late, darts player Eric Bristow, had almost a slanderous attitude about his opposition. Pointing out their lacking. I'm not sure if it is a good idea to pull someone to bits. It was his way of detailing how good he was. That works to a point but I'm sure he had plenty of supporters who admired his triumphs and those who wholeheartedly willed him to lose to get a bit of his own medicine. 

My confidence in myself is a lot less abusive than his. Although I do like the quality of someone believing in themselves because if they don't why should others. 

Anyway, I made the Saturday Tipping Competition. If you fancy you are good at horse racing and able to pick a winner or two you will have the chance to win good money in this winner-takes-all competition. 

This month we have 18 entrants which means we have a prize of £180. 

Not bad money for finding a few winners. In fact, it is better to play this competition than bet day in day out. 

Some of our players have won almost £500 since starting. When you think about it, you need just one winning month in one and a half years.

Take a look at Bloody Good Winner. 

 If you need further information, contact [email protected] 

10 Secrets How To Beat The Bookmakers

I know so many people think it is impossible to beat the bookmakers. 

It's not easy, but it is very possible. Remember, that betting on the horses is skill based. It isn't like fixed odds, where the longer you play the more you lose. In the world of skills - the more you know, the more you win. 

Use these 10 Secrets To Beat The Bookmakers:

 

1) Niche - 

You cannot do everything, know everything or even need to have such a mindset. There are simply not enough hours in the day to cover all aspects of the sport. Even within horseracing, you should focus on a specific niche. For me, it is two-year-old horse racing. It is much more efficient and beneficial to know your niche. Why? Because you will instantly know more than most. If you know more, you can win. 

 

2) Focus - 

Always focus on what it takes for a horse to win a race. Always look in the right direction. If you lose, assess why you lost. If you won, assess what made you win. Each result is helping to guide your understanding. Follow that path and let it direct you decision-making rules. 

 

3) Mindset - 

A positive mindset is an answer to so many questions. Learn the basics of your niche and progress. 

 

4) Bet small - 

You don't need to bet a fortune to win big money. Bet small to hone your skills. Before this, paper trail. You are betting to win and that starts with your foundation of knowledge. If successful, you can soon increase your stake with the bookmaker's money. 

 

5) Discipline - 

In truth, discipline should be number 1 on this list. Without discipline, you have very little hope of making your betting pay. You need to bet with understanding, logic, reason. You need to have a plan for how you are going to bet. Why are you betting? Does this horse fit within your understanding? As the phrase says: ''The wise man built his house upon the rocks.'' For good reason. The basis to your knowledge is the foundation it rests. 

 

6) Don't Bet For Buzz - 

Betting can be fun. Winning is better. I would quickly make the distinction between fun bets and those with understanding. To be honest, you really shouldn't bet for fun. It never turns out to be a good move because you are betting with your emotions rather than logic and reason. Emotions are irrational. The word irrational doesn't detail any aspect of stability. That's what is needed to be a successful gambler. Betting for the ''buzz'' is a mistake. The idea of fun betting is, sadly, what most people do all their life. They may think they are betting in a logical or professional manner but they are not. 

 

7) Wait - 

Patience is a virtue possess it if you can (they say always in a woman never in a man). If you're a bloke who likes to bet, then find a little patience. Why? Betting is often about waiting for the right opportunity to bet. Every race within your niche is a possible bet. If you don't have a niche everything could be a bet. That's not good. The best betting opportunities really do speak for themselves. Don't look for bets. Wait. Wait a week if you have to. When a good bet comes along it will stand out from the crowd. It's an important part of your discipline, focus and mindset.   

 

8) Routine - 

It is important to have a working routine. How you work, think, assess, bet, re-assess. A routine becomes part of you to the point of being a habit. This saves you thinking too much because you are actually thinking without thinking...and the logic part just helps you focus when needed. A working routine can make a huge difference to your success. It will make you efficient and reliable. 

 

9) Confidence - 

Do you bet with confidence? If you are losing all the time you will not be betting with any aspect of confidence. Your results will tell you to work harder, focus, learn, understand and take tiny steps rather than giant leaps. You cannot learn everything in a day. It is a process that never stops. When you get to the point of betting do so with confidence. Even if you feel a touch nervous know in your mind you are very good at what you do. Trust that long term you will win. Use that understanding to boost your confidence. 

 

10) Make It Fun 

Betting to make money can be a challenge. The workload can be heavy and often tiring. All too easily, it can become hard work and you lose the reason why you wanted to bet to a professional level. It has become a job. Find a way of working which makes what you do fun. Don't focus on all those little things that don't really make a difference to your betting. Use your energy wisely. Bet and make it fun. Watch the horses and enjoy the spectacle. Enjoy your successes and appreciate your understanding to win. You have achieved a level of success very few punters will ever attain. 

Japanese Pinball Industry Makes More Money Than Las Vegas

Think of gambling and Las Vegas comes to mind. Surely, it's the biggest gambling industry/location in the world? Well, you'd think so, hey. However, the Japanese gambling industry has a thriving business of its own but this time it's pinball machines. 

It's estimated that one in eleven people play pachinko palours once a week. 

Japanese gamblers spend £152 billion on these vertical pinball-like slot machines called pachinko, each year. 

Thin-Slicing Your Bets

I don't always get time to read a book. 

A good muse, interesting prose. I studied psychology at The Open University. I'm the male equivalent to Willy Russell's Educating Rita. I do love that film. Identity. The transforming of one's identity. To become your ideal self. Self-image. And often, finding that you didn't want or need it at all. Because you don't know until you get there. 

They say travel broadens the mind but education can open the doors to endless avenues without leaving the room. 

Anyway, I enjoy reading psychology. It is a powerful tool which, one day, will probably be the most incredible subject you have ever considered. It may well be a new religion. A secret power used to manipulate. It's no surprise, hey. It is happening now. But why would the most successful uses of psychology be detailed? They wouldn't because it's black magic (or white magic) which makes people money. Don't forget these people ploughed fortunes into this research to make it pay. If I said: ''If you do these 10 things that person is likely to buy your product'' you'd be willing to pay good money.

Psychology is and will continue to be the new wisdom of our time. 

Gambling is no different. In fact, it is more likely than not to be at the front of the queue. Why don't casino's have windows or clocks? Someone, somewhere, paid good money to know without some kind of time reference people are likely to bet longer and lose more. Sure, they have a watch on their wrist or a phone in their pocket. But they are too busy looking at the roulette wheel spinning round or praying for an ace on the Blackjack table.

I have found a few psychology angles betting on horse racing. It is surprising how something so simple can guarantee a value bet. I'm not going to say what it is because I've worked hard to know all the info I have gained over the years. If you want to pay me then come and ask. 

The human condition works in a certain way. To the most part, it thinks in a certain way. It's like these optical illusions which make it look like an object is moving when it isn't. A colour looks ten-shade lighter than the one next to it to find out it is the same. It's like me playing Blackjack but knowing something you don't and you will never see it even though it's right in front of your nose. You only know when I tell you (the secret). You still don't believe. I show you how it works. We play a few more hands and you lose. Then you understand why you lost. I manipulated your behaviour. It was as predictable as the ticking of the clock you couldn't see or hear. 

Now, I'm not saying there is such a psychological angle playing Blackjack. But there may be someone out there - who knows. I pick up my drink, waving and shouting ''hello'' to the girl with the big tits, who walks into the casino with some old bloke wearing mirror glasses. You bet more on the next two hands. It sounds comical, hey.  But imagine if it was true.

I've been reading a fascinating book written by Malcolm Gladwell called blink (the word isn't capitalised). The power of thinking without thinking. It investigates something called thin-slicing.  

The definition of Thin-slicing: 

Thin-slicing is a term used in psychology and philosophy to describe the ability to find patterns in events based only on "thin slices", or narrow windows, of experience.

If you want to learn more visit this page on Wikipedia (Thin-slicing). 

Thin-slicing is interesting because it relies on the unconscious mind to make decisions. This isn't unusual because it is how the mind works. The difference between the conscious mind and subconscious mind is immense. The conscious mind can only process 40 bits of info per second. The subconscious 20,000,000 (twenty million). So it is 500,000 better than the conscious mind. 

There has been a lot of research within this area and it makes fascinating reading. It often refers to very experienced people within their field. The thing which is interesting is that even though they know something is likely to happen they often cannot explain it. If they do try to explain it, they are often proved to be mistaken. 

Like the tennis coach who could tell when any player was going to make a double fault. Just imagine what that could be worth from a betting point of view when centre courting. 

I have been thinking about thin-slicing regarding my betting on two-year-old horse racing. I have an inkling this is happening to me. Because the amount of times I look at a racecard and my eye is drawn to a horse. You may be thinking well that's nothing unusual. I hardly ever bet on nursery races but so often I have been drawn to a horse's name and they go on to win or run very well. 

The only things that make me question how this will work or not is making the subconscious conscious. As soon as you start to think of the process it may be difficult to tap into the subconscious without wondering if the conscious is playing its part of tampering with those thoughts. 

Is your gut feeling correct? Perhaps your gut feeling is thin-slicing at work. 

Emotion - The Gambler's Enemy

Betting. 

What's it all about? Perhaps, more importantly, how does it make you feel? I guess so many people consider emotions the gambler's worst enemy because it makes them act irrationally. 

My good friend Eric Winner loves his unique speed ratings because they are objective and he doesn't have to think between the lines. Although, that doesn't stop him from thinking about the emotional side of betting. He said to me on many occasions that he cannot bet outside his comfort zone. So those ''dreaded'' emotions are at play. 

How do you bet when confident? How do you bet when stressed after a few narrow defeats or a losing run? It can affect the mind and how you think. You try to play safe and miss a big price winner. Instead of resolving the situation you inadvertently make it worse. You try to be more positive and shake the monkey off your back and the next bet loses. That ''dreaded'' cycle of peaks and troughs. 

What is the answer? 

We all have our own strengths and weakness. Are you like the elegant swan who is paddling like a demon under the water?

It's an interesting topic of conversation.  

I know a lot of people don't like betting each-way. In truth, I know that I would be better off betting straight wins. But more often than not I bet each-way. Why? Because, although at times it is a frustrating bet, it is a confident bet, too. So often if a horse loses, but placed, you don't feel the hurt. 

''It was placed, so that gave me a small profit or a small loss.'' 

There is no right or wrong because it is an individual thing. My brother hates each-way bets. But it is dependent on your performance. I try to bet as safe as I can and they are very consistent. I'm not struggling with my emotions if five horses are beaten by a nose but I would be if they were singles. 

Also, to protect my interests I follow a lot of guidelines. They are very good at helping keep me on the right path, especially if you have to think on your feet with seconds to spare. A knee-jerk reaction is never a good idea because you are caught up in the emotions of the moment. 

It's a funny one but I have found that the foundation that I bet is just as important if not more than finding winners. In ways that sounds crazy because so many punters just have the mindset of thinking it's all about winners and strike rate. However, any gambler with experience knows they mean little. Someone could have a 10% strike rate and make more money than someone who achieves 50%.

Discipline is the biggest strength any gambler can have.

It can even help minimize emotions. 

A Bitter Pill To Swallow

When you look at horse trainers at the top of their game it seems so easy. The likes of John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute and Roger Varian. 

None of these trainers has to delve to the bottom of the barrel. It is a luxury few will ever understand. I remember a few years back Olly Stevens kind of detailing how this training game works by stating that he had two years to make it a success else he would be another to hit the wall. A first season worthy of merit followed by a poor year which saw his disappear shortly after. It must be a bitter pill to swallow because they have training in their blood. How difficult it must be to let that slip away. It isn't in their hands so they must be looking to others to dig a little deeper. I don't imagine it is a matter of short arms and deep pockets. It is just business. 

Businessmen and women are all about finance. They don't mean to be hurtful they just can't afford to lose their money. 

However, it is sad. Life is tough. 

Every season you see rookie trainers trying to make their name. 

One trainer who just never seems to get a break is Ilka Gansera-Leveque. I really don't understand why because she is a lovely lady, intelligent and passionate about her racing. She can train winners and recently moved to a new stable. I'm sure she said she's the smallest trainer in Newmarket. The other year she had a two-year-old debut winner in Zebelini (2014). The horse ran in the ownership of Lamont Racing Ltd (until 2015). 

It must be a frustrating business. So many top-flight trainers wouldn't even look at most of these horses and so many wish they had the opportunity to show their talents.  

One of my favourite trainers, Karl Burke (pictured).

Are Horse Trainers Creatures Of Habit?

I'm pretty sure you're thinking we don't need a blog post to know the answer to that. 

You may be right. 

There is little doubt that most trainers follow set patterns, especially with their best prospects. We've all seen two-year-olds following the exact path.

At the end of every Flat turf season, I run a study on every two-year-old horse trainer. I can't say it's an enjoyable endeavour. I could buy the software but I like to study manually just to review each trainer and make an assessment as I work. I may find an interesting angle and run a further study which yields rewards. I don't want to say too much about the info because knowledge is power and all that. Well, I start at A and finish at Z. I don't think there is a trainer with the surname initialled Zed. 

I've just started my research and it is revealing. The findings are more pointers than something cast in stone but quantitative data can be analysed, while qualitative can help with research. 

I have noted a few finding which has been very successful at pinpointing winners, some at speculative prices. It proves the worth of searching for angles. There's always money to be made by investigating your niche. I always say to be a successful gambler it is about looking in the right direction. Meaning you are looking in the direction of winners. You are analysing information which you know is possibly hiding a golden nugget. Rather than just looking somewhere which isn't likely to reveal anything much. How do you know where to look? That comes with experience. 

I won't be disappointed to see the end of the trainer list. However, I know it will be time well spent when the new Flat season begins.