TALKBET

Horse Racing: Find Your Niche

Jack of all trades and master of none. 

That's the quote which no gambler can afford to be tagged. However, it is one that most ignore to their detriment. The best of the best at any given talent stick to one subject. 

Why? 

Because there simply isn't enough time to do everything and there really isn't any need or logic to cast your net too far (so to speak). Would you want your thoroughbred horse trained by someone who specialised in Shetland ponies? Each to their own but I would be more accepting of a dedicated expert rather than a part-time lover. 

It's the same with finding your niche within horse racing. To put it bluntly, if you don't specialise then you are very unlikely to win. This specialism doesn't have to be within one area (although it is advisable) because you may have a couple of areas you consider yourself an aficionado. 

You need to put in the time and effort to set yourself apart from the crowd and look at people around you and say to yourself: ''Within in my niche I know more than you!''. That's not being bigheaded - it's just a fact. A point you are proud to detail and talk about. If someone asks you a question in your niche you can explain it with knowledge, experience, and facts. You know more than the bloke down the road and that is the reason you make your betting pay. 

I have honed my skills within two-year-old for over 30 years. 

I tell people I am an authority and know more than just about anyone in the country. 

And I can tell you this - it is a fact. 

When you understand your subject matter you are confident in your thoughts and you can work to a higher level. When I studied with the Open University reading Psychology for a Hons Degree I went into every exam feeling confident. I knew I would pass the exam. That was a guarantee. How did I know? Because I had worked tirelessly to understand the subject and revised to a point that I simply knew what I needed. Whether I would achieve a distinction was another matter but I knew I would get a high-grade pass without any problem. 

I proved the point every year and my exam grades were actually higher than my tutor-marked assignments. 

To do well at horse racing, you need to enjoy your subject matter. If it is hard work or you lack motivation then you will fail miserably. The biggest problem with following horse racing is that it sets the pace. You either keep up or fall behind. It is akin to being stuck on a conveyor belt. 

You may be lucky and find a niche or way of working which isn't dictated to by the racing calendar. That is a good thing although I think you will still feel the pressure of needing the discipline to work in an efficient manner. 

So if you want to be an expert within your niche then you need to work hard. They say it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert. However, that is to a level that I would have to put in speech marks.  In truth, it takes years to understand and then you carry on learning. 

It is startling how few gamblers appreciate you need to learn something to be better than your opposition. We live in a competitive world and the only way you survive is by being better. Herbert Spencer coined the phrase ''Survival of the fittest''. See how knowledge proves its power because you may be under the misapprehension that it was a quote from Charles Darwin. (It wasn't).

With a little bit of work, you will look at friends and foe with a knowing smile. 

You know more.  

 

 

 

Are You Ready for the Flat Turf Season 2020

So the new Flat turf season 2020 is almost upon us. 

I always get confused by the exact date which may be at the end of March or (I imagine) the start of April. Thankfully, unless it has changed, we will start with the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster. 

It will be the normal roll call with the likes of David Evans et al. To be fair the last few years have seen some talented juveniles. Readers will remember Ontoawinner syndicate and Show Me Show Me who won the Brocklesby Stakes a shade cosily and placed at Group 3 class at Goodwood's Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes. In fact, this son of Showcasing went on to win total prize money of £72,655. 

Time will tell what this year's renewal will display. 

I am always hopeful that Bill Turner will have an entrant and a horse with a touch of ability. He is one of few trainers to make a name for himself in this race with (if memory serves) six winners. The Dorset trainer has struggled to capture those dizzy heights in the last few years with two-year-olds running down the field and showing limited ability. In fact, his two-year-olds have been very poor. This is much to do with the loss of a couple of loyal patrons and in particular, E A Brooke, who won the Brocklesby with the likes of He's So Cool and Sally's Dilemma. 

Bill Turner's Brocklesby winners started back in 1996 - Indian Spark. 

The victories continued:

2002 - The Lord

2006 - Spoof Master 

2008 - Sally's Dilemma

2011 - He's So Cool 

2013 - Mick's Yer Man

As we can see, the winners have dried up over the last six years and I am not holding my breath Bill Turner will be tasting victory in the Brocklesby Stakes 2020.

Time will tell. It must be frustrating for so many smaller trainers who have proven they can train winners if only given the horse. 

Good luck to Bill for the season ahead.

Archie Watson 2yos Start Season in Flying Form

Archie Watson doesn't let the grass grow under his feet. The Upper Lambourn trainer has made a name for himself at Saxon Stables, throwing aside his rookie status in 2016 with a number of talented horses, especially two-year-olds which he has done particularly well. Many winning on debut.

This new Flat season has started in a similar vein with four sparkling two-year-old wins in a period of twelve days.

2nd April -

Electric Ladyland made a great debut at Lingfield when disadvantaged by a wide draw but led from start to finish. This daughter of Cable Bay was an inspired yearling purchase at just 35,000 euros. She doesn't lack for pace and one to follow.

3rd April - 

Lady Kermit wasn't green when making a sparkling win on racecourse bow at Kempton. The even-money favourite was ridden with confidence by jockey Eddie Greatrex who quickly got to the rail and soon had the opposition on the back foot and pulled away to an easy six-length victory. This daughter of Starspangledbanner cost £50,000 at the yearling sales and must be one of the best two-year-olds in the stable. A filly who could well be heading to Royal Ascot. 

8th April -

Redcar set the scene for another bright prospect in the appropriately named Exclusively. This daughter of Showcasing is in the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd. This 90,000 guinea yearling purchase was expected to take all the beating and had to dig in to beat Tim Easterby's Iva Go as the pair pulled over three lengths clear of the field. 

15th April - 

No surprise to detail another flying filly winning on debut at Windsor. Lambeth Walk, a daughter of Charm Spirit, was smart away from the stalls and battled well, pulling over two-lengths clear of Tom Dascombe's Dr Simpson who was fancied to go well from a prime draw. 

Watson has set the target for other trainers and he is making waves in the ranks by showing them how it is done. 

One thing we guarantee is that there will be plenty more winners to come.

Photo: Lambeth Walk wins on debut at Windsor 

Gay Kelleway - Training Racehorses in France!

Horse trainers. It all seems so easy when you are at the top of the tree. Messrs Gosden, Charlton & their ilk don't have to worry about money (they do but not like some). 

That brings us to prize money in the UK. We are talking about horse racing prize money. The numbers don't make very good reading. In fact, the prize money isn't a great deal different from ten years back. When the only chance an owner of a thoroughbred horse is the winning purse it is all about pounds, shillings and pence. True, they can bet on their horse but there are no guarantees and if the tips I have heard from trainers are anything to go by, they will have even more problems. They will be selling shares in their horse to Victor Chandler. Funny, how you never hear much about them as bookmakers these days. Anyway, the prize money is horrendous. Even high-profile races it seems pretty dire and that is for pattern races. I mean, who, realistically, is going to have a horse winning at that class? Yeah, perhaps if it cost £800,000 at the sales. You get my meaning, hey. Basically, horse racing, unless you get lucky or do something astounding, is a rich man's (or women's) hobby. 

Ooh, La La... 

I can understand why so many trainers from the UK are looking across the channel to ply their trade. A basic 2yo claiming race worth £10,000 to the winner. What would be the equivalent in the UK? Perhaps £3K. Maybe £4K on a good day. It is tempting, hey. When you think how much money is bet on a single race on a daily basis it is criminal that even a modest race isn't worth £10K. Just imagine what impact this would have on the horse racing industry? It would appeal to so many who have half an idea of wanting to buy a horse.

''I've got a horse!'' 

More and more UK horse trainers are looking to grab some ''good'' cash from the French racing. We see a few two-year-old horses go to Saint-cloud (France) this week. Why? Well, it wasn't to eat escargot. It was to grab a slice of the cherry pie. 

Gay Kelleway is evening thinking of training in France. This news should make the powers that be listen rather than stick their heads in the sand like the crazy ostriches we see all too often. 

If Kelleway is successful and other trainers see her success, how long will it be before others follow?

In truth, all the bookmakers would be crippled without horse racing. You have only to see how desperate they are to get a piece of the action every Cheltenham Festival to see their ''we don't make much money from horse racing'' talk is a load of baloney. 

When major horse trainers start talking French, it's time to take note.

All Work and no Play Makes Jack a Dull Boy

A quote from Stephen King's The Shining (1980). A great film with an excellent cast. Directed by Stanley Kubrick  I know some of you wordsmiths are thinking: ''Stephen King didn't coin the phrase.'' It is a proverb which goes back to 1659. And means (surprise surprise) without time off work, a person becomes both bored and boring.

Getting ready for the start of the new Flat turf season, I am slowly becoming Jack Torrence (Jack Nicholson) not because I'm a caretaker of an old haunted hotel, an alcoholic or an aspiring writer. Thankfully, it isn't snowing, although that would give me a bit of time on my side. 

I've been analysing two-year-old horse trainer data. It is a slog. I can spend a few days getting to grips with any given soul. I've been wrestling with Roger Varian this week. The thing about data analysis is that the only good part is when it's done. Then all the assumptions can be understood a little better. I consider them as helping point me in the right direction. Nothing is carved in stone. However, these findings are very interesting. Now, I'm not going into detail about each and every aspect of the research of information gleaned because I've been working like an Oscar winner and I don't particularly want to just give my hard work away unless someone has something to give in return. It's a funny old world, hey. Else, you have a merry line of ''takers'' who not only take your knowledge for free but at the same time take the PISS. 

Anyway, I'm a very generous person so if those words seem a bit Jack Blunt (rather than Torrence or Nicholson) you are welcome to contact me if you want to swap info (joking). 

So I have been working on the horse trainer stats. I have always used this information and it has definitely proved positive. This year, I am going even more in depth and it will be interesting to see how this pans out when working with betting opportunities. Time will tell. I have little doubt it will be helpful but the proof is in the eating. Just imagine the data is a blackberry crumble with custard. 

The Flat turf season isn't far away. I see the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster is for the 30th March or around that time. The first two-year-old race should be the Brocklesby Stakes. Well, unless we have something on the all-weather. We will have to see. I'm not keen on the all-weather diluting the Brocklesby Stakes. I am hopeful it will be the first two-year-old contest. 

Anyway, enough about statistics for one day, I'm going to pour myself a drink, put my feet up and have a good read. 

 

Great Yarmouth Horse Racing Membership 2019

I love having a day's racing at Great Yarmouth. 

I've been going since a child when my parents stayed at the Haven holiday park at Caister-on-sea. Lots of good times, making sandcastles, playing the one-armed bandits and going to the races with my Dad (Colin). We always visit the course for the Eastern Festival which covers three days in the middle of September. It is a merry pilgrimage to walk in the footsteps of those who have sadly passed away.   

Those people include my Dad, his brothers, Keith and Roy, Uncle Fred and friend such as Pete Miller. They used to love their racing, a few loved their drink even more. 

Life makes you think, hey? 

For that reason, we go to Great Yarmouth races, a big old group of family and friends. A little bit of betting on course and then later in the evening at the Grosvenor Casino. The weather always seems to shine and it really is a beautiful week to have fun and gather our thoughts. 

I've never been a member of the course. My cousin, Danny, is a member of Huntindgon. I've been there a few times with him but the National Hunt isn't really my things. I don't bet for fun and I don't have the slightest idea what is good, bad or ugly over the sticks. 

The annual membership at Great Yarmouth is £260 a year if you buy before March. Considering it covers 23 meeting, four complimentary tickets it isn't going to take much to pay for itself. 

If anything, it will encourage me to go more often. Get a decent sunny day and I'll jump on the train from March to Yarmouth in a couple of hours. 

I have stayed a number of different hotels, especially out of season when it is as cheap as cheap. Last visit with my brother (to go to the casino) we stayed at the Nelson Hotel. A huge family room and breakfast for £65. It doesn't get much better than that. Gareth lost £40, I won £80, and a lucky number 9 saw Tony leave with £280. Not bad considering he never changed more than £20.

We often go late evening. Get there for about 9 pm. Go to the casino for a meal, which can be a bit hit and miss, and then downstairs to play roulette or three-card poker. I've played the later a few times but the casino edge is criminal on pair plus and even when you have the luck of the devil the payout never seems to glorious. 

Anyway, I will be venturing down the coast more times this year and try to get value out of my membership.  

Definitely worth buying.

Trainer Quotes Vs Group Horse Daily

It seems the world and his wife want that little bit more insider horse racing news. It seems that many punters are willing to pay for 'info' about what a given horse trainer thinks about their horse(s).

Trainer Quotes is one of a few platforms with connections to stable. I'm pretty sure another known website is called From The Stables. Both have clear links with a string of trainers. 

I'm not sure how they fair when it comes to being in profit at the end of the season. 

I note Trainer Quotes as they detailed a horse which Group Horse (Daily) identified. The horse in question being Global Spectrum, trained by Gay Kelleway, in the ownership of Dr Johnny Hon. The horse won well on debut at Kempton and similarly showed real promise when winning from a high draw over course and distance. Great to see Kelleway have a decent horse in the ranks because her other two-year-olds last season were pretty poor. 

I guess all these platforms give a free trial or some aspect to show their worth. I know From The Stables cost £30 a month. If they show a profit, it is money well spent by definition. 

The great aspect of Group Horse (Daily) is that they detail a list of unraced and lightly raced two-year-olds from the largest to smallest trainers. In fact, number wise they leave the likes of TQ & FTS left wanting. They detail 20 - 30 trainers but that falls a long way short of Group Horse (Daily) who have over 100. How much would that cost? 

I have never seen any platform come close to the standards. They have testimonials which exclaim the same finding. They give two free 10 Dark Horse Mailings (sent out August/September) which achieve the highest standards. They are unraced two-year-old that is more likely than not to race a Group class.  

You can see what last year's horses achieved by clicking this link. 

All three websites are worth a look. However, for free information, you are very unlikely to surpass Group Horse (Daily) because seeing is believing. 

Good luck to all. 

PS: One of the mailings detailed Classic race favourite Too Darn Hot, trained by John Gosden, before he made his debut and winning all four starts at two. Want to see the other horses? Click the link above and get your free mailing for the best two-year-olds in training 2019. 

 

 

 

If Jesus Had Been a Professional Gambler...

It's interesting how we view one another. How we make judgements. Jesus couldn't preach to those he knew because his words were not taken seriously. The people thought they knew him better than he knew himself. 

As time proved - the son of God was everything and more. His proclamations were true. 

In many respects, as a gambler people are judged more harshly by those they know. The stereotype of a gambler as a loser is a difficult tag to shift by those who think they know better. Everyone has an opinion. I enjoy - for the most part - others words. We can all learn, if we/they listen. No one wakes up one morning to find they are an expert in their field. It would be ridiculous to think anything else. Even if we accepted such a view it wouldn't take long to see the lack of talent of a bricklayer and his crooked wall.  

It is particularly true for a gambler. When the majority lose their cash could you really be the exception to the rule? In fairness the majority of people friends and family I meet - just about - give me the benefit of the doubt. It makes me smile. If only they knew the truth. How in one year I bet almost £400,000 and won a lot of money. How those years and understanding have increased with time. I know more now than at any time in my life. 

However, it is strange and a little lacking of others when they try to assess (me, you, them) but in truth their measure for comparison or understanding is limited. They have no understanding of horse racing but somehow feel they can judge. They don't understand the basics of gambling but they make a judgement. They are talking to someone with a lifetime of experience and talent but ''astonishingly'' imagine they know ''more''. Enough to judge. 

It doesn't hurt. It makes me smile. The lack of other people's knowledge is my strength. I absorb their lack by taking advantage of their weakness which they so often ''naively'' imagine is a strength. It's akin to me going to a Professor of Statics and trying to explain I know better because I can say the seven times table off by heart. 

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER.

Sadly, people who question...in actual fact need to know more than the person within in their sights. The student doesn't mark the lecturer's exam paper. 

It's the same old story. One thing people understand. Money. I could prove my worth in every sense of the word by showing more money than anyone could imagine. A wealth of knowledge which exceeds their dreams. The difference is that I enjoy my ''work'' because I do exactly as I wish.  I can work anywhere in the world. As I do when I very to see my beautiful Marlene in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

My opportunities are of my making.  

When was the last time you bet for a year, two years, a decade or decades and were in profit? 

If you have, well done. If you haven't I suggest you talk to someone who has before imagining you could ''somehow'' do better or simply that no one makes money but the bookmakers and layers. 

How naive. There are people making money in everything aspect of life.

I would challenge anyone within my niche to know more or do better. If you are I will shake your hand because I have met someone worthy of note.

If you fall short then all is not lost. Simply open your mind because if you don't believe anything is possible - then for you - it will never be a successful part of your life. 

Betting: Are You Struggling With My Stereotype?

I guess we all love to chat about subjects we know. I could listen to anyone talk about anything if they do so with passion. A glint in the eye, and confident discourse. 

One thing you should never do in life is limit others by your own perception of them. Humans are good at what psychologists call fundamental attribution error. You see someone drop something and class them as clumsy when they have a medical condition. Perhaps we shouldn't be too harsh on ourselves because it is just the way the mind works. But it proves that our thinking isn't always correct or what we see as the truth may be flawed.

Betting is the same.

The stereotype of a gambler doesn't paint a very promising picture. Just the same as the Frenchman isn't riding about on a bicycle wearing a beret and has a string of onions around his neck. Lipman first coined the term stereotype. It holds a grain of truth. However, it is a simple form of categorisation which doesn't really do anyone justice.

The general view that people lose if they gamble is correct. 

But that's the difference between the general and the specific. Ask 100 people if they win at gambling and 95% will lose. But if you bump into a line of 5% winners (like a winner's convention) everyone you talk to is a winner!

The difference between a winner and loser comes from the hard work of the individual. Would you beat a decent snooker player, poker player, athlete, quizmaster if you didn't practice, have a passion and want to be a player of some standing? 

So why is it that most punters never do anything to improve their knowledge? In fact, very few seem to have learned anything even after ten, twenty or thirty years. Still stuck to their basic - unlearned - process of 'winning'. It's like me going to a French class and after studying for years family and friends are bewildered to find I am far from fluent. I can order chicken and chips but don't ask me how much it costs?

Sure winning at anything isn't easy. Being a success in business isn't easy. Learning a trade isn't easy. Nothing worth its salt is easy. So why imagine gambling should be easy? The fundamental thinking of most people is flawed. If they sat down and gave their thoughts serious consideration they would realise they are wasting their time. 

When you consider how much some people waste gambling they really need to stop and think. 

The sad thing is, that with a little bit of work they could transform their fortunes. I could help you make your gambling pay.  You may read that and think otherwise. However, I guess you are stating that assessment from the standpoint of someone who doesn't make their betting pay? Fundemental attribution error. So forgive me for thinking your thoughts, judgement or assessment have little worth. Sad, but true. 

I could tell you 10 things about betting and pretty much guarantee you will make money. 

Do I want to do that? Not really because unless it is worth my time then there is very little motivation. Everything is about being motivated to succeed. 

Without question, you can achieve much greater success as a gambler if you assess where you are at and what you need to do to improve your ability. 

What's Your Favourite Grand National Winner?

Who doesn't love the Grand National? The greatest steeplechase in the world. It's a race that captures the imagination of young and old. 

Remember the time...

The great thing about the Grand National is that we all have a story to tell. Even if it was your Grandad reminiscing about the day he saw Red Rum walking around the paddock, before going on to win in style.  Which horse do you remember? Or perhaps it was a horse trainer or jockey? 

I love the National. I have many memories:

Firstly, I can't help but hear the music composed by Carl Davis. You know the theme tune, originally played in the film Champions (1984) starring John Hurt, telling the story of Bob Champion and Aldaniti. Champion, battling cancer, and his trusty horse, who had struggled for fitness after suffering serious injury. I often watch this iconic film and have tears in my eyes. I actually had a small bet on Aldaniti (I was fourteen) and what a supreme victory. A story that gives hope in times of adversity. Bob Champion went on to raise millions of pounds for charity and won the greatest battle - his life. 

Which other horses do I remember? 

I should say bet rather than horse...

This story is about my brother and a horse many will not remember called Classified. He ran in the days of West Tip and all those names which stick in the mind. It was an era of great Grand National winners. Classified never won but I think he finished third once but a remarkably durable horse who was never far away on umpteen tries. One year, the Racing Post reported that he had unseated his rider. And there was a wave of letters from frustrated fans who knew his saddle had slipped. Never - ever - would Classified unseat his rider or fall at a fence. He concluded a long career by winning his final race at Huntingdon. What a gallant horse. 

So many readers will state that Red Rum was the greatest of the greatest and who could knock such a wonderful horse. The only horse to win three times. 

I can't help but feel sorry for Crisp who had to give Red Rum 23lbs but tired in the closing stages to be caught by the murderous horse (Red Rum). For many, the 1973 Grand National is an iconic race. 

My Dad had a story. He loved the Grand National although I can't say he was much of a quizzer. However, knowledge comes in all shapes and forms and he often talked fondly on taking part in a quiz at the Lord Nelson pub and answering the question: Which horse won the 1968 Grand National? That would be Red Alligator!

For all those who love a bet, the National is one of few races where you can hit the jackpot for a small sum. Why? Well, over the years there have been 5 winners at 100/1. How about a cheeky £10 bet to win £1000? Now, that would be a story worth telling.  

There have been so many twists and turns. Horses which should never have won. Horses and jockeys who defied the odds. People who won and lost a fortune betting. 

This year's Grand National will tell another story waiting to be told. 

Yours.