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M3 Selections For The Weekend

We have one selection for tonight and three for tomorrow, maybe some more for the fixtures on Bank Holiday Monday.

Friday 30th December

Cheltenham 2.44 2.0
Rotherham 2.43 3.6
Draw 5.58 3.5
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6

Saturday 31st December

Bolton 2.59 2.2
Wolves 5.36 3.4
Draw 2.34 3.25
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.25

Swansea 8.0 5.5
Tottenham 2.33 1.67
Draw 2.24 3.6
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.6

Preston 2.18 2.88
Sheffield Weds 2.78 2.38
Draw 5.5 3.4
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.88

 

December Catchup

I have a spare few minutes so it's about time I put a bit more detail into my recent betting activities. It's safe to say that the last few days have been an absolute stinker, I've had one of those runs where nothing comes off, a complete contrast to the beginning of the month where I could do no wrong!

On top of that the stakes have been rising in line with the losses, an age old problem and one that rears its head from time to time. It all started with a small annoying minus figure that I wanted to get rid of so I placed a few planned bets e.g Over 1.5 goals (at Half time) in the West Brom v Man City game at Evens. When this didnt look like coming in I layed 0-0 in the same game (finished 0-0). I then moved onto Arsenal v Wolves and at 1-1 layed the correct score, we all know how that finished! In a fit of desperation I tried finding a goal in the Stoke v Villa game, ended 0-0. I got some back on a couple of other games though with a lay of 1-0 in the Swansea v QPR game (ended 1-1) and a lay of 0-1 in the Norwich v Spurs game (ended 0-2). Yesterday though the downhill trend continued, it started with an annoying mistake on my behalf as I stopped the horse trading application before it had completed it's 'stuff' on a particualar race, the net result was that a horse went off with an open lay at 7's, of course as is the way with these things it went on to win. Only way to get this back was to have a bit of interest in the Celtic v Rangers game, sending off at 2.8, lay of Half Time 0-0 and a goal in the first 20 minutes all went down although if you saw the game you would have to say that to lose all those bets was incredibly unlucky. Both teams had good chances in the first 20 mins and Rangers had a did it/didnt it cross the line claim to a goal whilst later in the game a clear sending off offense warranted just a yellow from the inconsistent referee.

Interesting reading a lot of other punters who I follow on Twitter have had a rough time just recently as well. So anyway, there's a full league fixture list this weekend and I'll be looking to get back on track with the in play football punting, hopefully also get a few M3 selections as well although that's been very quiet of late.

The pre race horse trading application continues to churn over hundreds of pounds with little profit or loss. Yesterday (excluding the open lay muck up by myself!), it churned through well over a thousand pounds and ended down 2 quid, it just seems to be the way with it at the moment, it's as if it's one tiny adjustment away from moving it into profit.

That just about sums it all up at the moment, hopefully a new year will bring a change of fortune!

 

M Prediction For 21.12.11

It was a bit much to hope for a repeat of the previous weekends excellent return for the M3 selections and so it proved as all 3 M3 selections went down. To be fair, it would of only needed one of them to come in for a profit and the Man City v Arsenal game (predicted draw) certainly came close. that game also cropped up for me as a trade'able selection and I went for Over 1.5 goals at Evens at Half Time. With a punt already on the draw, the only scores that could then harm me were 1-0 and 0-1, hmmmmm.

We have an M3 selection for tonight, it's at decent odds as well:

Atalanta 3.33 1.91
Cesena 2.86 4.33
Draw 2.86 3.25
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.33

Cesena are currently trading at 5.3 on Betfair so plenty of scope there for a value.

The automated pre-race horse trading is still proving a headache, one day up, the next day down (and some). It's hard trying to find some sort of consistency but I keep refining the settings so we'll see how it goes.

Another dull post I'm afraid but what with work, Christmas, lack of 4 figure wins etc and my enthusiasm for posting is a bit on the low side.

 

M3 Football Ratings For The Weekend

Just 3 selections this weekend, I've also stuck them into 3 doubles. Not much time so will try and put up a proper post at a later date!

Saturday 17th

Bury 2.02 2.7
Brentford 3.37 2.6
Draw 4.79 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.7

Fulham 2.67 1.62
Bolton 5.75 6.0
Draw 2.22 3.75
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.75

Sunday 18th

Man City 2.76 1.73
Arsenal 6.29 4.5
Draw 2.09 3.75
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.75

 

Weekend Roundup

Another win yesterday for the only M3 selection and an almost perfect weekend with 6 out of the 8 selections winning, as I said yesterday, it doesn't really get much better (well, ok, 7 or 8 is technically better but you get the gist of what I'm saying). The Return On Investment is running at 79.61%, obviously a little unrealistic to expect it to stay anywhere near that!

The pre-race horse trading app continues to be a headache. For a month or two now I've followed a simple principle of trading, look for good lines of support and resistance and if they are breached then flag up that a swing movement could well be happening and place the appropriate trade, this principle has worked 'ok' but then had a poor week after increasing the stakes by a small amount. Maybe I'm being to harsh in trying to look for weekly profits but full time traders make profits almost on a daily basis so I don't think attempting to find a profit over a weekly period is unrealistic. After the poor week I changed the way the app traded, it was something I'd been wanting to try, maybe I was just looking for the right excuse. It now produces lots of trades rather than looking for one big swing trade, I'm not convinced by it and after a few days it's running at a small loss but we'll see. I've got a few more ideas I'd like to try if this doesn't work....!

No selections for tonight for the M3 ratings but there's a couple of cracking games, Roma v Juventus and Chelsea v Man City. I shall be trying to get back on track with the in play trading after a very poor weekend.

 

Doesn't Get Much Better

A pretty stunning day for the M3 ratings yesterday as we got 4 out of the 6 selections coming in for a total of 57 points profit (based on 10 points per selection). Doing all of these selections combined into 15 doubles returned a total of 409 points (based on 10 points staked on each double), it doesn't get much better than that. It wasn't looking too good at 4:45 as Fulham (1-0 down at Swansea) were awarded a penalty, at the time I had that match as a draw under the M3 ratings, I had Fulham Next Goal and also a lay of the 1-0 Correct Score! The inevitable happened and Fulham missed the penalty, as it was, Swansea then went on to make it 2-0 so to be fair I'd of still been gutted if Fulham had equalised a few minutes from time only to then lose 2-1. It wasn't till the evening games came along that the M3 ratings all started clicking into place, I was pretty pleased when I looked on the account statement to see how much had been transferred back into the account from the multiples markets, certainly one of my bigger wins on Betfair.

The in play football trading didn't fair so well, just one of those days I just couldn't pick anything but it's been going very well in December and I was due a day like that anyway. As is always the way, the few winning 'trades' I had weren't posted on my Twitter account but any trades I did 'tweet' were inevitably losing ones!

We have just one selection today for the M3 football ratings, be good to have a bit more of a quiet day today anyway!

Espanol 1.94 2.8
Ath Madrid 3.07 2.5
Draw 6.32 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.8

 

M3 Football Rating Predictions For 10.12.11

Nice to finally get a winner with a Friday night prediction coming in (Schalke at Herta Berlin) to start the weekend off on the right note! On the down side that was the only winner for me on what was a poor day. I fancied another goal in the Schalke game so had a couple of bets towards the end which came to nothing and also a lay of Mechelen at home to Anderlecht when Mechelan were 1-0 up (they went on to win 2-1).

The pre-race horse trading app had a stinker but I'll cover the seemingly gradual demise of that in another post, busy this morning so don't have much time.

Anyway, here's todays M3 predictions, I've also stuck them in 15 doubles so need a few of them to come in....!

Mainz 6.0 2.2
Hamburg 2.13 3.2
Draw 2.74 3.4
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.2

Swansea 3.0 2.63
Fulham 4.1 2.75
Draw 2.37 3.25
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.25

Reading 1.94 2.63
West Ham 5.0 2.63
Draw 3.53 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.63

Siena 3.5 2.1
Genoa 2.0 3.6
Draw 4.67 3.2
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6

Betis 2.07 3.2
Valencia 3.06 2.25
Draw 5.27 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.2

Levante 2.09 2.8
Sevilla 3.47 2.5
Draw 4.29 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.8

 

M3 Rating Prediction For 09.12.11

Quick post with a prediction for tonight, lets try and buck the trend and start the weekend off with an M3 winner!

Hertha 3.0 2.75
Schalke 04 1.73 2.5
Draw 11.4 3.3
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 2.5

 

The Ups And Downs Of Trading

Nice start for the M3 ratings with a winning weekend for them. We were close again on Sunday to a big double payout but it was not to be as Stoke managed to hang on for a 1-0 win at Everton. I still need to have a think about what to do with the multiple selections, I would imagine that it'll become clearer as the weekends go by and I can gauge the number of selections the system comes up with. If I only get say 5 predictions on average across all the leagues per weekend then I may well dump them into a big load of doubles, if there are more than that then I'll probably just use the doubles options when I get more than one selection on any one day. I'm still tempted by one big multiple at huge odds on of all the selections over a weekend as well, sort of like buying a lottery ticket, not quite as big winnings though!
I've worked out that with the current ratings I should be getting an ROI of around 23%, this is based on bookmaker prices though. Backtesting is one thing though and there is no guarantee that I'll get anywhere near that sort of ROI now I'm actually using them for real. We're currently on an ROI of 18% after the first weekend, if it ends up with that at the end of the season then I certainly won't be complaining!

The pre-race horse trading app has had a poor week. It recovered slightly on Sunday with a small profit after Saturdays bad day but then had another loss yesterday, not a major one but a loss means the profit/loss for the week is heading in the wrong direction and now looks like it'll need something spectacular to turn things around over the next couple of days. Today has started off on a downer as trade after trade is kicking in the stoploss, as always, we'll leave it running....

The in play football had a spectacular Sunday topped off with a lay of Mallorca (winning 1-0 in the 35th min)in the half time match odds market in their game at home to Bilbao , Bilbao equalised in the 45th minute. Nothing doing last night though as I had Liverpool next goal which I let run, Zamora To Score (at 5's I thought this was well worth a punt) and Getafe Next Goal (Sevilla went 1-0 up about 2 mins after I put this bet on!). I scraped some cash back though with a lay of 2-0 in the Sevilla game 15 mins from time, it ended 3-0.

Theres a couple of Championship games this week so I'll run the M3 ratings predictor over them and post any predictions up, doubtful it'll come up with any though. Plenty of Champions League to get stuck into in play instead....!

M3 Football Ratings For 04.12.11

Nice to get a win under the belt yesterday as Santander overcame Villarreal. Villa couldn't quite match up to Utd but at 0-1 we were always in with a shout of the draw coming in.

The pre-race horse trading app had it's worst day yesterday which was a little disappointing, always seems to be the way though after you've increased the stakes. I plan on running it on weekly periods though and then assessing it at the end of each week. If I'm happy with the performance then I'll increase stakes, if I'm unhappy then I'll either leave it to run as it is or decrease the stakes.

The in play football trading had another decent day, this is going really well at the moment, could of done with another goal in the Villa game though, 1-1 would of been the perfect result for me for so many systems!

We have a couple of M3 predictions for today, I'll also put them in a double. I need to have a think about the multiples, I'm a little undecided whether to do doubles on the current days selections or over the course of all the weekends selections or maybe even big accumulators at small stakes and huge odds over the weekends predictions ? I'll have a think anyway.

Everton 2.48 1.67
Stoke 4.67 5.5
Draw 2.62 3.6
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.6

Sociedad 2.27 3.0
Malaga 3.67 2.4
Draw 3.49 3.2
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.0