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M3 Football Ratings For 29.11.11

Pretty much a full fixture list in the Championship today so we have a load of predictions and ratings... 

Burnley 2.24 1.91
Ipswich 3.67 4.0
Draw 3.55 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.28

Derby 1.93 2.5
Brighton 3.22 2.8
Draw 5.82 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.68

Leicester 2.06 1.8
Blackpool 2.8 4.33
Draw 6.4 3.6
*** Back Away at 4.63

Middlesbrough 3.07 2.5
West Ham 2.19 2.8
Draw 4.58 3.25
*** Back Away at 3.0

Millwall 2.04 1.73
Doncaster 5.0 4.5
Draw 3.23 3.75
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Nott'm Forest 2.33 2.25
Leeds 3.0 3.2
Draw 4.2 3.25
*** Back Away at 3.42

Reading 2.47 1.73
Peterboro 3.45 4.5
Draw 3.27 3.75
*** Back Away at 4.82
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Southampton 2.17 1.62
Hull 3.47 5.5
Draw 3.98 3.75
*** Back Away at 5.89

Watford 2.43 2.3
Bristol City 3.18 3.0
Draw 3.66 3.4

M3 Ratings For 27.11.11

Small profit yesterday of 16 points (based on 10 points per selection) yesterday for the ratings which is better than nothing I suppose! Another raft of them today although not as many as yesterday.  

Mainz 9.223372036854776E16 9.0
Bayern Munich 3.0 1.33
Draw 1.5 5.0

Werder Bremen 2.43 2.1
Stuttgart 2.8 3.4
Draw 4.33 3.4
*** Back Away at 3.64

Liverpool 3.54 2.75
Man City 2.68 2.63
Draw 2.9 3.2
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Swansea 5.0 2.2
Aston Villa 2.63 3.4
Draw 2.39 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Auxerre 2.5 3.1
Lyon 3.1 2.4
Draw 3.6 3.1
*** Back Home at 3.32

Lorient 1.59 1.62
Nice 9.223372036854776E16 6.0
Draw 2.7 3.6
*** Back Home at 1.73
*** Back Draw at 3.85

Marseille 2.16 2.25
Paris SG 6.38 3.2
Draw 2.63 3.2
*** Back Home at 2.41
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Kilmarnock 9.0 7.0
Rangers 3.0 1.5
Draw 1.8 4.0
*** Back Draw at 4.28

 

M3 Football Ratings For 26.11.11

Once again we start the weekend on the back foot as the M3 ratings fail on the Friday evening! Koln failed to turn up last night and were duely thumped 3-0 at home. I'm now sure how I'll feel if these ratings take another pasting this weekend, I'm already at the stage where I'm tired of trying to get them all on and matched and am now seriously considering binning them and coming up with some alternative ones to use for the rest of the season. We'll see after this weekend anyway. 

Augsburg 3.0 2.88
Wolfsburg 1.86 2.38
Draw 7.8 3.4

Dortmund 2.0 1.65
Schalke 04 4.75 5.25
Draw 3.45 3.75
*** Back Away at 5.62
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Hannover 2.67 2.2
Hamburg 4.17 3.2
Draw 2.6 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Hertha 2.0 2.88
Leverkusen 2.73 2.5
Draw 7.5 3.2
*** Back Home at 3.08

Hoffenheim 3.2 1.62
Freiburg 2.78 5.5
Draw 3.05 3.75
*** Back Away at 5.89
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Nurnberg 2.58 2.0
Kaiserslautern 4.25 3.8
Draw 2.65 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Arsenal 1.31 1.44
Fulham 8.0 8.0
Draw 8.84 4.2
*** Back Home at 1.54

Bolton 2.71 3.1
Everton 5.67 2.38
Draw 2.2 3.25
*** Back Home at 3.32
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Chelsea 1.38 1.22
Wolves 7.0 15.0
Draw 7.48 6.0

Man United 1.54 1.4
Newcastle 30.0 8.5
Draw 3.14 4.5
*** Back Draw at 4.82

Norwich 2.52 2.1
QPR 3.8 3.5
Draw 2.94 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Stoke 1.52 1.83
Blackburn 7.5 4.5
Draw 4.84 3.5
*** Back Home at 1.96

Sunderland 2.04 1.67
Wigan 6.67 5.5
Draw 2.78 3.6
*** Back Draw at 3.85

West Brom 4.33 4.0
Tottenham 2.33 1.91
Draw 2.94 3.6
*** Back Draw at 3.85

Blackpool 2.45 2.38
Birmingham 4.47 3.0
Draw 2.71 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Brighton 2.14 1.73
Coventry 3.65 5.0
Draw 3.87 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.35

Bristol City 1.91 4.2
Southampton 4.52 1.83
Draw 3.92 3.5
*** Back Home at 4.49

Cardiff 2.39 2.0
Nott'm Forest 3.63 3.75
Draw 3.27 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.01
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Crystal Palace 2.19 2.38
Millwall 4.5 3.0
Draw 3.11 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.55
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Doncaster 1.91 2.5
Watford 4.33 2.8
Draw 4.06 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.68

Hull 2.58 1.91
Burnley 3.19 4.0
Draw 3.35 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.28
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Ipswich 3.17 2.6
Reading 2.97 2.6
Draw 2.88 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Leeds 2.44 1.67
Barnsley 4.79 5.5
Draw 2.62 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.89
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Peterboro 2.14 2.5
Middlesbrough 3.43 2.7
Draw 4.13 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.68

Portsmouth 2.56 2.8
Leicester 3.33 2.5
Draw 3.24 3.25
*** Back Home at 3.0
*** Back Draw at 3.48

West Ham 2.0 1.4
Derby 4.0 8.5
Draw 4.0 4.33
*** Back Away at 9.1
*** Back Draw at 4.63

Bordeaux 1.63 1.91
Caen 4.0 4.33
Draw 7.33 3.2
*** Back Home at 2.04

Lille 2.12 1.4
Brest 6.29 8.5
Draw 2.72 4.33
*** Back Draw at 4.63

Nancy 2.68 1.8
Dijon 3.19 4.75
Draw 3.19 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Rennes 1.67 1.73
Evian Thonon Gaillard 6.75 5.0
Draw 3.97 3.5
*** Back Home at 1.85

Sochaux 2.06 2.7
Montpellier 6.11 2.7
Draw 2.85 3.1
*** Back Home at 2.89
*** Back Draw at 3.32

St Etienne 1.85 1.5
Ajaccio 6.67 7.0
Draw 3.24 4.0
*** Back Draw at 4.28

Toulouse 3.27 2.2
Valenciennes 2.76 3.5
Draw 3.01 3.1
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Celtic 1.37 1.25
St Mirren 0.0 12.0
Draw 0.0 5.5

Dunfermline 9.223372036854776E16 3.2
Aberdeen 2.33 2.2
Draw 1.75 3.4

Hearts 2.33 1.83
Inverness C 3.0 4.33
Draw 4.2 3.5

Motherwell 3.2 2.2
Dundee United 2.0 3.2
Draw 5.33 3.4

St Johnstone 4.67 2.1
Hibernian 1.92 3.4
Draw 3.79 3.4

 

M3 Football Ratings For 25.11.11

We have a prediction (or two?!) for tonights game over in Germany. Be nice to start the weekend off with a winning selection but the drift on Koln is a bit disconcerting....!

FC Koln 2.4 3.2
M'gladbach 5.0 2.2
Draw 2.61 3.4
*** Back Home at 3.42
*** Back Draw at 3.64

November Update

Been very quiet of late on this blog so it's about time I sorted out a half decent post (no wisecracks please...). A small loss of 4 points last night for the M3 selections as Birmingham scored in the last minute, we were on the right side opposing Cardiff at Coventry though.

The M3 Footballs Ratings System's Return On Investment has taken a real hammering in the last week and is now down to a paltry 0.64% after staking a total of 4980 points, as I keep saying, I'll persevere throughout the season (unless it hits a real downward spiral) and see where we are at the end. It's not the most inspiring of returns though and I can only see another Summer of data crunching and head scratching ahead.

The bonus of Birmingham scoring late last night was that I'd had a punt on them in the Next Goal market with 15 minutes left. The in play football trading has gone really well this month and I'll be looking to increase stakes next month.

The pre race horse trading is still in a testing/configuration phase, I'm now at the stage where I configure it and then monitor it for a week. After that, I'll tweak the settings slightly and let it run for another week. Obviously that means it's all moving slowly but I need to be sure that it's running at it's optimum settings before I start increasing the stakes to a meaningful amount. I've focussed on trying to get big market swings and even though moving the settings so that it takes 2 ticks above/below the current available odds has meant I have got every bet matched in the last week, the profit/loss has remained at a steady zero, some days slightly up, some days slightly down. I'm now moving it back a tick so I will miss out on some swings (2.4 on average per day based on previous settings) but obviously any movements I do get are 'one tick better off' when it comes to greening/redding up. I'm also trialling a strategy of really cutting the stoplosses to 1 tick so I expect more losses but they will be small ones, I might just see how that goes today if the stoploss is to small and then change it again. I hope that all means something to some of you....

Thats probably about it until Friday for me, no more league action until then but plenty of European action to get stuck into tonight and tomorrow!

 

M3 Ratings For 22.11.11

Small profit on Sunday for the ratings but not much to get excited about! I'll do a proper post at some point this week, been very busy of late.

Here's the ratings and predictions for tonight:

Birmingham 2.76 1.73
Burnley 3.14 5.0
Draw 3.12 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.35
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Coventry 2.31 3.6
Cardiff 3.65 2.0
Draw 3.41 3.5
*** Back Home at 3.85
*** Back Draw at 3.75

 

M3 Football Ratings For 20.11.11

Miserable day yesterday for the ratings with a loss of 138 points (based on 10 points per selection), I know I keep saying it but the continual one step forward, two steps back with these ratings really starts to wear you down after a while! I'll update the overall profit/loss after today.

Hopefully claw back some money today with these selections: 

Hamburg 2.0 2.3
Hoffenheim 3.71 3.0
Draw 4.33 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.46

Stuttgart 1.5 1.4
Augsburg 9.223372036854776E16 8.0
Draw 3.0 4.5

Chelsea 2.39 1.83
Liverpool 5.14 4.5
Draw 2.58 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Leicester 2.63 1.67
Crystal Palace 2.75 5.0
Draw 3.92 3.75
*** Back Away at 5.35

Millwall 1.88 1.8
Bristol City 3.8 4.5
Draw 4.86 3.5
*** Back Away at 4.82

Brest 4.18 2.25
Sochaux 3.33 3.5
Draw 2.17 3.0
*** Back Draw at 3.21

Paris SG 1.71 1.3
Nancy 7.5 11.0
Draw 3.53 5.0
*** Back Draw at 5.35

Valenciennes 2.06 2.25
Auxerre 5.6 3.4
Draw 2.98 3.1
*** Back Home at 2.41
*** Back Draw at 3.32

 

M3 Football Ratings For 19.11.11

Poor start to the weekend with all 3 ratings failing last night! Here's todays: 

Bayern Munich 2.58 1.62
Dortmund 3.0 5.5
Draw 3.58 3.8
*** Back Away at 5.89
*** Back Draw at 4.07

FC Koln 1.46 2.5
Mainz 4.0 2.7
Draw 15.2 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.68

Freiburg 2.55 2.6
Hertha 3.17 2.6
Draw 3.43 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.78

M'gladbach 1.75 2.5
Werder Bremen 2.4 2.75
Draw 84.0 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.68
*** Back Away at 2.94

Schalke 04 1.75 1.75
Nurnberg 4.33 4.75
Draw 5.06 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.08

Wolfsburg 3.33 2.3
Hannover 4.0 3.0
Draw 2.22 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Everton 2.38 1.57
Wolves 4.18 6.5
Draw 2.93 3.75
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Man City 2.26 1.3
Newcastle 4.0 10.0
Draw 3.25 5.5
*** Back Draw at 5.89

Norwich 4.0 5.5
Arsenal 2.25 1.67
Draw 3.27 3.6

Stoke 1.39 1.83
QPR 17.0 4.5
Draw 4.48 3.5
*** Back Home at 1.96

Sunderland 3.6 2.3
Fulham 2.53 3.2
Draw 3.06 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Swansea 4.67 6.5
Man United 1.74 1.5
Draw 4.76 4.2
*** Back Home at 6.96

West Brom 2.0 2.0
Bolton 3.44 3.8
Draw 4.77 3.4

Wigan 2.0 2.5
Blackburn 3.73 2.88
Draw 4.32 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.68

Barnsley 3.31 2.2
Doncaster 2.84 3.25
Draw 2.89 3.3
*** Back Away at 3.48
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Birmingham 2.13 1.83
Peterboro 3.18 4.33
Draw 4.61 3.5
*** Back Away at 4.63

Burnley 2.28 2.5
Leeds 3.34 2.8
Draw 3.8 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.68

Coventry 3.08 4.75
West Ham 2.21 1.75
Draw 4.5 3.5
*** Back Home at 5.08

Derby 2.48 2.7
Hull 3.25 2.6
Draw 3.45 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.89

Middlesbrough 2.23 2.0
Blackpool 4.0 3.75
Draw 3.32 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Nott'm Forest 2.24 1.91
Ipswich 3.5 4.0
Draw 3.72 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.28

Reading 2.03 2.2
Cardiff 3.95 3.3
Draw 3.92 3.25
*** Back Home at 2.35

Southampton 3.19 1.5
Brighton 2.21 6.0
Draw 4.29 4.33
*** Back Away at 6.42
*** Back Draw at 4.63

Watford 2.76 2.38
Portsmouth 3.19 3.0
Draw 3.09 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Ajaccio 3.0 3.2
Caen 3.0 2.4
Draw 3.0 3.0
*** Back Home at 3.42
*** Back Draw at 3.21

Dijon 3.27 3.1
Bordeaux 2.75 2.4
Draw 3.03 3.1
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Evian Thonon Gaillard 1.67 2.75
Lorient 2.75 2.75
Draw 27.5 3.0

Montpellier 4.5 2.8
Marseille 3.39 2.63
Draw 2.07 3.1
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Nice 2.12 2.4
St Etienne 7.57 3.2
Draw 2.52 3.0
*** Back Home at 2.57
*** Back Draw at 3.21

Aberdeen 2.2 2.5
Motherwell 9.223372036854776E16 2.8
Draw 1.83 3.2
*** Back Home at 2.68
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Dundee United 3.0 2.5
Hearts 5.25 2.8
Draw 2.1 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Hibernian 2.82 2.38
Kilmarnock 1.82 2.88
Draw 10.33 3.4

Inverness C 9.223372036854776E16 7.0
Celtic 1.6 1.44
Draw 2.67 4.33

Rangers 1.06 1.29
St Johnstone 9.223372036854776E16 11.0
Draw 17.0 5.0

St Mirren 1.33 1.7
Dunfermline 2.5 5.0
Draw -6.67 3.6

 

M3 Football Ratings For 18.11.11

Nice to have some proper football back, here's the ratings for tonights games:

Kaiserslautern 1.95 2.88
Leverkusen 3.75 2.38
Draw 4.52 3.4
*** Back Home at 3.08

Lyon 1.92 1.8
Rennes 9.223372036854776E16 5.0
Draw 2.08 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Toulouse 2.67 3.0
Lille 2.25 2.5
Draw 5.54 3.0
*** Back Home at 3.21

 

November Catchup

About time I did a bit of a round-up with the various systems etc. I bet there's a fair few punters out there licking their wounds with the Barcelona result last night, Barcelona did in fact win but just 1-0 away to lowly L Hospitalet in the Copa Del Rey. The markets were expecting a landslide victory especially with the team that Barca were putting out but as is often the case in these cup games it was not to be. I backed Barca to win both halves (thought Iniesta's goal in the 42nd minute had saved me) and also a goal in the first 20 mins, so a couple of mug bets down!

Apart from that though, the in play football betting has been going well. I'm looking for periods of play where teams traditionally score/concede and then bet accordingly on these 'power-plays'. Because you are betting on specific periods of play you tend to get decent odds, still a work in progress though.

Talking of work in progress, the automated horse trading still remains very much an ongoing project. It has just run a complete week using specific settings and come out with a small profit, not enough though for it to be of any relevance. The problem is that I'm not getting enough initial bets matched when a trend develops, so for example if I spot an upwards breakout at 6's I place a lay at 6's and then hopefully ride the trend upwards. Unfortunately I'm not always getting matched when asking for a price, the trend develops and then disappears way beyond what I'm trying to lay at, obviously this doesnt cost anything but I'm also not making anything on solid market movements!  Yesterday I had 8 bets not get matched on the horse markets, these equate to a large profit and are the difference between a decent profit and breakeven. I thought I'd spotted a problem a couple of days ago where I realised I was logging in each time I was placing a bet, this would obviously take a couple of seconds and seriously impact the speed of getting my bet on and matched, strangely enough fixing this has made no difference at all to the number of bets going unmatched?! So now I've altered the settings and added in stoplosses (I've had a few large reverse trends that really need stopping) and also started backing/laying higher up in the trend in order to try and get matched more. We'll leave it to run for the week anyway...

The M3 football Ratings had a cracking weekend and the ROI of 4.26% is the highest it's been for a while (possibly all season?!). Not a massive return by any means but at least it's heading in the right direction. Nothing doing this week as we have yet another international 'break'.