M3 Football Ratings For 30.10.11

Nothing short of a disastrous day yesterday for the M3 ratings with a loss of -158 points (based on 10 points per selection) - it's worst loss this season. That pushes it into a negative figure now, not sure what else to say about it apart from trying to keep the faith and hang in there. In theory, it is finding value bets and over the longer term if you are finding value then you 'should' come out on top. It doesn't necessarily pick winning bets, you'd have to be brave backing the draw at Man City yesterday or betting against Bayern Munich to win but every so often these freak results come in, we just need to be on them at the right odds ready for when they do.

It's been a poor week in betting terms with the Correct Score laying system now consigned to the ever increasing pile of 'systems that worked well for a while before then imploding spectacularly' and also the automated Horse Trading system not performing how I thought it would. The Horse Trading still needs some more tweaks and it's only very minimal stakes but catching an up or down swing in the movement of the odds seems to happen only very occasionaly leading to lots of small losses as the stoplosses kick in. To be fair, I've never had a chance to trade the horses all day long, it just so happens that the evening races I have traded have proved profitable as I've caught decent up or down swings. I thought by automating this strategy I could get the same ratio of good swing trades to small losses as I had seen when trading manually, it might just be that I had been 'lucky' with the ratio's when trading in the evening and that if I tried my method throughout a full day it would not prove profitable. Food for thought anyway.

One bright spot has been a new system I've been trying while trading the football markets. I've been using a new method of getting in or out of the various markets and yesterday went very well so much so that I only ended up with a small loss despite the kicking my bank received from the M3 Ratings. I'll continue with it and see how it goes.

Here's todays 'value' (note the sarcastic tone in that?!) M3 Football Ratings: 

FC Koln 1.86 1.91
Augsburg 9.22 4.0
Draw 2.17 3.5

Hamburg 2.0 1.91
Kaiserslautern 7.67 4.0
Draw 2.71 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Tottenham 1.53 1.36
QPR 12.0 9.0
Draw 3.82 4.75
*** Back Draw at 5.08

Leeds 2.43 2.25
Cardiff 4.5 3.0
Draw 2.73 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Nice 2.92 2.2
Sochaux 3.16 3.4
Draw 2.93 3.2
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Toulouse 2.19 2.5
Rennes 4.28 3.0
Draw 3.24 3.0
*** Back Home at 2.68

Valenciennes 2.63 3.2
Lille 2.91 2.3
Draw 3.62 3.2
*** Back Home at 3.42

 

Comments

[Talkbet]

Hi Ben, Thanks for the comment. Better day for me yesterday and it was needed! I come up with 'systems' that use data from the previous 5 seasons so I don't place to much effort into continued analysis of the results, all I know is that I backtest the system for 5 years and see if it produces a reasonable return, if it does then I start using it. Obviously there is no guarantee that what has worked in the past will work in the future but I try and use systems (currently the M3 'model') that produce steady and unspectacular returns over the course of backtesting.
I'll see how the M3 Ratings work out for this season but in the back of my mind I'm already formulating a different method of coming up with ratings which I'll code next Summer and then put into use next season if they appear to be worth using.
It's amazing how quick the years/seasons fly past when coming up with ratings etc!
Thanks again for the comment and good luck with your ratings.

[Ben]

Yesterday was a tough day for value, with a number of long shots being the value bets, if none of them come in you will take a hit, especially if the home bankers fail to produce.

My calculations differed from yours yesterday on a number of games, though we did agree on others. I ended up with a 94pt loss (using your staking plan)

Analyse your results, where are you profitable? is there something you are missing, a pattern in the numbers, indicators of form change etc.

I have now published over 1800 selections and the analysis is starting to be effective, still more information needed, but patterns are emerging that give indicators of areas of weakness and areas of strength.