Talkbet

Weekend Catchup

Lot better day yesterday for the M3 Ratings and a return of 68 points (based on 10 points per selection) , still a poor weekend and a poor run of form but maybe it's the turning point ?! Overall we have a return of +0.79% with the ratings so we're in front but given the total outlay of them, it's a pretty woeful return considering we were up to the heady heights of +7% a couple of weeks ago. Profit is profit though as I keep saying....

No predictions for tonight although there is plenty of Championship action this week so there will be some ratings being produced from tomorrow onwards.

The in play football trading had another good day coming out with a profit, not as good as Saturday but a profit none the less. It's one of those unwritten rules of betting that bets you announce/tweet never come off, others that you keep to yourself or don't have time to tweet seem to come in. It happened a few times yesterday as I layed 2-1 in the Spurs game (a sizeable lump as I planned to get out 15 mins later for a small loss across the board if no goal was forthcoming) - they went 3-1 up shortly after and I also backed over 2.5 goals in the Malaga game at 60 mins (Overs came in in the 73rd min). Anything I announced to the world though seemed to nosedive badly, Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 punted at Half time in the Valenciennes game (ended 0-0) and a few other such bets all backfired, one of those things though!

The automated horse trading has really got me scratching my head and I've had to totally rethink my strategy, it might well be that when Ive tried the strategy before manually I've just been lucky with the races I've been 'hitting' and been able to catch big drifts/steams in prices. These just don't seem to be occuring at the moment in the markets and I'm trying a strategy now that backs and lays between specific odds prices as opposed to trying to catch a big break out, we'll see how it performs today anyway.

I'll be trading the Stoke v Newcastle game later, I'm sure someone could also run a book on the number of Halloween metaphors the pundits can come up with during the game....

 

 

 

M3 Football Ratings For 30.10.11

Nothing short of a disastrous day yesterday for the M3 ratings with a loss of -158 points (based on 10 points per selection) - it's worst loss this season. That pushes it into a negative figure now, not sure what else to say about it apart from trying to keep the faith and hang in there. In theory, it is finding value bets and over the longer term if you are finding value then you 'should' come out on top. It doesn't necessarily pick winning bets, you'd have to be brave backing the draw at Man City yesterday or betting against Bayern Munich to win but every so often these freak results come in, we just need to be on them at the right odds ready for when they do.

It's been a poor week in betting terms with the Correct Score laying system now consigned to the ever increasing pile of 'systems that worked well for a while before then imploding spectacularly' and also the automated Horse Trading system not performing how I thought it would. The Horse Trading still needs some more tweaks and it's only very minimal stakes but catching an up or down swing in the movement of the odds seems to happen only very occasionaly leading to lots of small losses as the stoplosses kick in. To be fair, I've never had a chance to trade the horses all day long, it just so happens that the evening races I have traded have proved profitable as I've caught decent up or down swings. I thought by automating this strategy I could get the same ratio of good swing trades to small losses as I had seen when trading manually, it might just be that I had been 'lucky' with the ratio's when trading in the evening and that if I tried my method throughout a full day it would not prove profitable. Food for thought anyway.

One bright spot has been a new system I've been trying while trading the football markets. I've been using a new method of getting in or out of the various markets and yesterday went very well so much so that I only ended up with a small loss despite the kicking my bank received from the M3 Ratings. I'll continue with it and see how it goes.

Here's todays 'value' (note the sarcastic tone in that?!) M3 Football Ratings: 

FC Koln 1.86 1.91
Augsburg 9.22 4.0
Draw 2.17 3.5

Hamburg 2.0 1.91
Kaiserslautern 7.67 4.0
Draw 2.71 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Tottenham 1.53 1.36
QPR 12.0 9.0
Draw 3.82 4.75
*** Back Draw at 5.08

Leeds 2.43 2.25
Cardiff 4.5 3.0
Draw 2.73 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Nice 2.92 2.2
Sochaux 3.16 3.4
Draw 2.93 3.2
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Toulouse 2.19 2.5
Rennes 4.28 3.0
Draw 3.24 3.0
*** Back Home at 2.68

Valenciennes 2.63 3.2
Lille 2.91 2.3
Draw 3.62 3.2
*** Back Home at 3.42

 

M3 Football Ratings For 29.10.11

Nothng doing last night as Frieburg went down 0-1 at home to Leverkusen, another game where by all accounts we were a little unlucky as Frieburg were pressing and deserved at least a draw from it. So onto todays selections and as usual on a Saturday we have a load to plough through!

Bayern Munich 1.62 1.17
Nurnberg 3.5 16.0
Draw 10.5 7.0
*** Back Away at 17.12

Mainz 4.5 2.7
Werder Bremen 2.89 2.5
Draw 2.32 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

M'gladbach 3.33 2.0
Hannover 2.2 3.75
Draw 4.07 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.01

Schalke 04 2.56 1.95
Hoffenheim 4.2 4.0
Draw 2.7 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Stuttgart 4.0 3.3
Dortmund 2.73 2.2
Draw 2.61 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Wolfsburg 2.33 2.2
Hertha 3.5 3.2
Draw 3.5 3.4

Chelsea 2.41 1.62
Arsenal 5.29 5.5
Draw 2.52 4.0
*** Back Draw at 4.28

Everton 6.0 4.5
Man United 2.22 1.8
Draw 2.61 3.6
*** Back Draw at 3.85

Man City 1.3 1.17
Wolves 11.5 19.0
Draw 6.87 7.0
*** Back Draw at 7.49

Norwich 1.72 1.91
Blackburn 4.56 4.0
Draw 5.0 3.6
*** Back Home at 2.04

Sunderland 3.38 2.1
Aston Villa 3.0 3.6
Draw 2.7 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Swansea 2.8 2.1
Bolton 3.14 3.6
Draw 3.08 3.3
*** Back Draw at 3.53

West Brom 3.33 4.0
Liverpool 2.05 2.0
Draw 4.7 3.3
*** Back Home at 4.28

Wigan 4.2 2.88
Fulham 1.94 2.5
Draw 4.04 3.25

Barnsley 1.9 2.2
Bristol City 4.86 3.2
Draw 3.73 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.35

Birmingham 2.39 2.0
Brighton 3.23 3.6
Draw 3.68 3.5
*** Back Away at 3.85

Burnley 3.19 2.25
Blackpool 2.12 3.1
Draw 4.67 3.4
*** Back Away at 3.32

Crystal Palace 2.26 2.63
Reading 2.79 2.63
Draw 5.03 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.81

Derby 2.42 2.6
Portsmouth 2.59 2.88
Draw 4.99 3.0
*** Back Home at 2.78
*** Back Away at 3.08

Doncaster 2.92 2.3
Coventry 3.1 3.1
Draw 2.99 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Millwall 2.8 2.1
Ipswich 3.54 3.4
Draw 2.78 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Nott'm Forest 2.52 2.3
Hull 3.79 3.2
Draw 2.96 3.1
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Southampton 1.91 1.91
Middlesbrough 4.57 4.0
Draw 3.89 3.5
*** Back Home at 2.04

Watford 2.32 2.63
Peterboro 4.29 2.5
Draw 2.97 3.5
*** Back Home at 2.81
*** Back Draw at 3.75

West Ham 3.0 1.91
Leicester 4.0 4.0
Draw 2.4 3.4

Ajaccio 3.5 3.6
Bordeaux 2.92 2.15
Draw 2.69 3.1
*** Back Home at 3.85
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Brest 2.71 2.6
Lorient 3.31 2.9
Draw 3.04 3.0

Dijon 3.0 4.2
Marseille 5.0 1.91
Draw 2.14 3.3
*** Back Home at 4.49
*** Back Draw at 3.53

Evian Thonon Gaillard 2.6 2.6
Auxerre 2.77 2.8
Draw 3.93 3.1

Lyon 1.8 1.62
St Etienne 2.67 6.0
Draw 14.4 3.6

Montpellier 2.23 1.57
Nancy 4.58 6.25
Draw 3.01 3.75
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Paris SG 1.83 1.33
Caen 9.223372036854776E16 10.5
Draw 2.2 4.5

Aberdeen 3.71 7.0
Rangers 1.93 1.5
Draw 4.71 4.0
*** Back Home at 7.49

Celtic 1.29 1.22
Hibernian 3.0 13.0
Draw -9.0 6.0

Dunfermline 2.0 3.3
Dundee United 1.75 2.2
Draw -14.0 3.3

Hearts 2.38 1.73
Kilmarnock 4.33 5.0
Draw 2.87 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Inverness C 2.5 2.8
Motherwell 3.0 2.5
Draw 3.75 3.2
*** Back Home at 3.0

St Johnstone 3.0 2.3
St Mirren 2.33 3.1
Draw 4.2 3.2
 



M3 Football Rating For 28.10.11

Nice to finally get a winner during the week as we had Birmingham to beat Leeds. We have a couple of predictions tonight in the main game coming from Germany as we look to oppose Leverkusen.

Freiburg 2.75 3.3
Leverkusen 3.0 2.1
Draw 3.3 3.5
*** Back Home at 3.53
*** Back Draw at 3.75

 

M3 Football Rating For 26.10.11

Predictable result on Monday night given the way the weekend went as West Ham beat Brighton 1-0 and turned over our Home and Draw backs. The ongoing return for the M3 selections is 4.25%, not exactly a massive return given the huge number of bets the system produces but profit is profit I suppose!

After a couple of small hiccups the automated horse racing trading is now in full flow and yesterday ended with a loss of £1.77, so not the greatest of starts but we'll give it time. To be fair to it, I just setup all the horses to trade first thing in the morning and didn't pay any attention to favourites so sometimes it was rtading the 5th or 6th priced horse, not ideal really. This morning I was more selective of the horses to trade and they should all be either first or second in the markets. I also made a slight change to the code so it should run a bit faster, hopefully it'll have a good afternoon to get some confidence with it.

No in play betting for me at the moment as I'm on a weeks 'sabatical' from it, although I did  come very close to lumping on Man Utd last night at 1.33 but then Berbatov scored a few seconds later and that was game over from that point of view.

We have an M3 selection for one of the games tonight, lets hope it can turn things around!

Birmingham 2.13 2.25
Leeds 3.59 3.1
Draw 3.96 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.41

 

A Funny Ol' Game

Plenty to write about this morning after one of the most eventful afternoons of football I can remember in a long time. There's not much else I can add to what's already been said about the United and Chelsea games apart from the fact they both conspired to give me my worst daily loss in many months. It started with a lay of City at 0-1, I had Man Utd down as an M3 home win so laying City at evens made sense, we all know what happened after that. It wasn't a big loss but it riled me so I went hunting around for another 'opportunity' and saw Chelsea a goal down at QPR. Rangers odds were still too high for me to lay to I lumped on Chelsea with a view to trading out if they hit 6's, 2 red cards later and their price had rocketed out to 15's and totally 'un-layable', hindsight is a wonderful thing and I should of just got out after the first red card. So with the dreaded red mist now clouding all logical thinking the only thing left was to lay the 1-0, ouch. It's not often I find myself going down that full tilt route but yesterday was one of those days, to take the positives from it I 'only' lost 40% of my bank and live to fight another day and it has also confirmed with me that laying correct scores is a system I'm now giving up on.

So this week I've promised myself no in play football betting, obviously I'll be sticking with the M3 selections but apart from that I'll just be watching and monitoring the prices. I need to do some more research into trading games and having a more definite plan.

This week I'm also putting the automated horse trading into action and have left it running for the races this afternoon. Still only small stakes so we'll see how it goes. It also needs a lot more error checking in, for instance if the event is suspended (for example if a horse is being removed from the market) then it just logs an error, I need it to continue trying to place a bet until the event unsuspends and the bet placement is successful, it's all stuff I've come across before really so it's just a matter of implementing it.

Despite another absolute shocking day for the M3 selections we still managed to prise out a tiny profit of 1 point (based on 10 points per selection), this was all due to Hannover's shock win over Bayern Munich, I think that was the only winning selection of the day but the odds were so good it cancelled out all the losers! A poor weekend for the system but as I've found out before, it can easily turn round again the following week. We have a selection for tonight as well:

Brighton 2.54 2.88
West Ham 4.38 2.4
Draw 2.64 3.3
*** Back Home at 3.08
*** Back Draw at 3.53

 

M3 Football Ratings For 23.10.11

Stinker of a day yesterday for the ratings. There seemed to be plenty of shock results around (even Bank Of Barca managed an unheard of 0-0 at home!), trouble is, we seemed to be on the wrong side of them and ended the day on a -71 point loss (10 points per selection).

The correct score laying system I use also had a poor day and once again I'm contemplating having a total rethink on this strategy, I like being able to dip in and out of games, I just dont have the time to trade complete games from start to finish on a regular basis.

On the plus side, my automated horse trading strategy placed its first trade last night, in the final race at Wolverhampton and ended with a loss of 22p! It should all be ready to go now so I'll pick out a few races today and fire it up.

Here's todays ratings, hopefully claw some cash back with them today: 

Hannover 5.0 9.0
Bayern Munich 2.0 1.36
Draw 3.33 4.5
*** Back Home at 9.63
*** Back Draw at 4.82

Leverkusen 2.22 2.0
Schalke 04 2.4 3.6
Draw 7.5 3.5
*** Back Away at 3.85

Arsenal 1.77 1.53
Stoke 6.4 6.5
Draw 3.58 4.0
*** Back Draw at 4.28

Blackburn 2.27 4.0
Tottenham 2.56 1.91
Draw 5.89 3.5
*** Back Home at 4.28

Fulham 3.67 2.25
Everton 2.94 3.3
Draw 2.58 3.25
*** Back Draw at 3.48

Man United 1.59 2.0
Man City 5.0 3.8
Draw 5.81 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.14

QPR 4.0 9.5
Chelsea 3.75 1.33
Draw 2.07 5.0

Bristol City 2.44 2.88
Birmingham 3.16 2.4
Draw 3.67 3.3
*** Back Home at 3.08

Auxerre 1.96 2.4
Rennes 4.33 3.0
Draw 3.85 3.2
*** Back Home at 2.57

Lille 3.14 2.3
Lyon 3.05 3.2
Draw 2.82 3.1
*** Back Draw at 3.32

Paris SG 1.82 1.25
Dijon 5.0 12.0
Draw 4.0 5.5
*** Back Draw at 5.89

Celtic 1.35 1.25
Aberdeen 6.5 10.0
Draw 9.34 6.0

Hearts 2.2 5.0
Rangers 3.88 1.73
Draw 3.48 3.5
*** Back Home at 5.35
*** Back Draw at 3.75

 

M3 Football Ratings For 22.10.11

Nothing doing on Wednesday as we opposed Leicester against Watford, we still ended up 11 points over the period of the midweek games.

Here's todays ratings, a busy Saturday as usual! 

Dortmund 2.5 1.29
FC Koln 3.0 9.5
Draw 3.75 5.5
*** Back Away at 10.17
*** Back Draw at 5.89

Hamburg 2.11 2.15
Wolfsburg 4.38 3.3
Draw 3.37 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.3
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Hertha 2.56 1.95
Mainz 2.82 3.75
Draw 3.94 3.5
*** Back Away at 4.01

Hoffenheim 1.91 2.0
M'gladbach 4.22 3.6
Draw 4.16 3.5
*** Back Home at 2.14

Kaiserslautern 2.5 2.0
Freiburg 4.25 3.6
Draw 2.74 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Nurnberg 1.95 2.5
Stuttgart 4.33 2.7
Draw 3.89 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.68

Aston Villa 1.92 2.0
West Brom 3.73 4.0
Draw 4.74 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.14

Bolton 2.16 2.2
Sunderland 18.0 3.5
Draw 2.08 3.2
*** Back Home at 2.35
*** Back Draw at 3.42

Liverpool 1.35 1.29
Norwich 8.0 11.0
Draw 7.52 5.5

Newcastle 1.5 1.57
Wigan 6.33 6.5
Draw 5.7 3.8
*** Back Home at 1.68

Wolves 2.0 2.0
Swansea 4.71 3.8
Draw 3.47 3.4

Blackpool 2.35 2.0
Nott'm Forest 4.23 3.75
Draw 2.96 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Cardiff 2.64 1.67
Barnsley 2.96 5.5
Draw 3.54 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.89

Coventry 1.82 2.63
Burnley 4.28 2.63
Draw 4.61 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.81

Hull 1.96 1.8
Watford 5.58 4.5
Draw 3.21 3.5
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Ipswich 2.2 2.0
Crystal Palace 2.92 3.6
Draw 4.91 3.5
*** Back Away at 3.85

Leicester 2.18 1.73
Millwall 4.29 5.0
Draw 3.24 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.35
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Middlesbrough 3.0 1.73
Derby 3.1 5.0
Draw 2.9 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.35
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Peterboro 2.25 2.4
Leeds 3.41 2.88
Draw 3.81 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.57

Portsmouth 2.18 1.83
Doncaster 3.42 4.33
Draw 4.0 3.5
*** Back Away at 4.63

Reading 2.16 2.75
Southampton 4.11 2.5
Draw 3.41 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.94

Bordeaux 2.61 1.75
Brest 3.3 5.0
Draw 3.19 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Caen 2.0 2.7
Montpellier 2.77 2.7
Draw 7.2 3.1
*** Back Home at 2.89

Lorient 1.92 2.2
Toulouse 2.33 3.5
Draw 20.12 3.1
*** Back Home at 2.35

Marseille 2.13 1.3
Ajaccio 9.223372036854776E16 10.0
Draw 1.89 5.0

Nancy 2.3 2.4
Nice 3.81 3.2
Draw 3.3 3.0
*** Back Home at 2.57

Sochaux 1.17 1.95
Evian Thonon Gaillard 9.223372036854776E16 4.0
Draw 7.0 3.3

St Etienne 2.93 2.1
Valenciennes 2.64 3.5
Draw 3.57 3.25

Dundee United 1.33 2.0
St Johnstone 9.223372036854776E16 3.75
Draw 4.0 3.4

Inverness C 1.31 1.83
Dunfermline 6.0 4.33
Draw 14.0 3.5
*** Back Home at 1.96

Motherwell 1.83 1.91
Kilmarnock 3.2 4.0
Draw 7.04 3.4
*** Back Home at 2.04

St Mirren 2.33 2.1
Hibernian 2.55 3.4
Draw 5.6 3.4

 

M3 Football Rating And Roundup

Apologies for the confusion last night over the M3 Football Ratings, I need to figure out why I was getting two separate sets of ratings, for now though I'll only be producing the ratings in the same way that I have done all this season. I don't think there was a massive difference in the ratings that were produced and we ended up with a decent 31 point return (based on 10 points per selection). Last gasp goals were once again the talk of the night as Coventry (draw and away backed) no doubt blew apart thousands of accumulators drew 1-1 at Leeds, City (I backed them at evens towards the end) won 2-1, Peterborough (backed as well) came from 2-3 down to win 4-3 and finally Blackpool (draw backed) spoilt the last minute goal party with a winner against Doncaster!

Onto tonight and just the one selection:

Leicester 2.0 1.57
Watford 4.33 6.0
Draw 3.71 3.8
*** Back Away at 6.42
*** Back Draw at 4.07

 

 

Ratings Redone!

Just rerun the ratings for tonight after I thought they looked wrong! Only 10 mins gone in the games so hopefully its not after timing too much, epic fail as they say!

 

Barnsley 2.38 2.75
Burnley 2.87 2.5
Draw 4.31 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.94

Blackpool 2.3 1.67
Doncaster 5.47 5.0
Draw 2.62 3.75
*** Back Draw at 4.01

Crystal Palace 2.29 1.91
Bristol City 3.94 4.0
Draw 3.22 3.4
*** Back Away at 4.28
*** Back Draw at 3.64

Ipswich 2.63 1.91
Portsmouth 2.86 4.0
Draw 3.7 3.5
*** Back Away at 4.28

Leeds 2.14 1.62
Coventry 4.06 5.5
Draw 3.49 3.8
*** Back Away at 5.89
*** Back Draw at 4.07

Millwall 2.42 2.2
Brighton 2.0 3.25
Draw 11.6 3.3
*** Back Away at 3.48

Nott'm Forest 2.04 2.63
Middlesbrough 4.0 2.63
Draw 3.84 3.3
*** Back Home at 2.81

Peterboro 1.96 2.4
Cardiff 4.67 2.8
Draw 3.64 3.5
*** Back Home at 2.57

Reading 2.47 1.73
Derby 4.58 5.0
Draw 2.65 3.5
*** Back Away at 5.35
*** Back Draw at 3.75

Southampton 2.41 2.1
West Ham 3.56 3.4
Draw 3.3 3.4
*** Back Draw at 3.64