March 3rd

I'm hoping to have some powerstats up later so be sure to check back...! I ran it last night on the fixtures over the weekend, it came up with the following:

Saturday
Home Win predicted Everton v West Brom. Back Everton at odds in excess of 1.65
Away Win predicted Brighton v Crewe. Back Crewe at odds in excess of 4.12
Away Win predicted Millwall v Oldham. Back Oldham at odds in excess of 3.52
Away Win predicted Lincoln v Rotherham. Back Rotherham at odds in excess of 3.63

Sunday 
Away Win predicted Hull v Blackburn. Back Blackburn at odds in excess of 2.75

Typically they all won! Aftertiming at its best but still slightly gutting that I didnt have these in place before the weekend!

It's interesting reading the Algorithm Betting blog, his championship picks seem to veer towards big away odds and I must admit the championship is a nightmare to try and predict. Recent results in that division bear (bare?) this out with the bottom teams beating the top teams on a regular basis at the moment.

We're at home to Chelsea tonight and it'll probably be another 3-0 or 4-0 drubbing, they really are our bogey team and we haven't beaten them since the Mary Rose sank. I'll be there though, even though I have a stinking cold and the weather looks bad :o)

Comments

[Nick]

Hi, Interesting what you say about Spainish favs coming in in price, I've also felt the market is slightly wary of the likes of Barcelona and Madrid dropping players, so when they do play the price will come in a bit. Its a bit trite but La Liga is probably the best league in the world at the minute (an opinion which has nothing to do with the fact I've lost on the Premiership and won on La Liga recently), some cracking derby's recently and the Atletico/Barcelona game wasn't bad either...well done on the darts, would be a good "sport" to analyse if the data was there.

Good luck with the football, Nick

[Talkbet]

Hi Paul, cheers for the comment. At the moment I'm playing small stakes, I used to post daily and monthly p/l's but late last year and early this year I suffered some really bad losses so I'm starting over with small stakes and rebuilding my bank. Once i get it back to a reasonable level maybe I'll start reposting the actual profits and losses.

[paul]

hi talkbet, thanks for the mention. ive posted before on your blog - when are you going to get round to posting your P&L covering a longer period. i follow your posts but am not getting the 'buy-in' i would get if i could consider the posts in context.
not a moan, just feedback as i know you're always looking to improve your blog.
others may disagree?

[Talkbet]

Nick - many thanks for the comment. I know what you mean about the stats and I am probably hitting my head against a wall but I'll give them a shot and see how they fly. I do believe prices can get distorted on exchanges though, one of my fav examples are the big Spanish games on a Saturday or sunday night, I'm a firm believer that the prices for the big teams are pushed down by the amount of money people have lost punting on the English games in the afternoon, especially if there have been a few shocks. Team line ups and tactics are something I have to leave as theres no way I could write anything to incorporate them, I think the ideal for the stats is that they highlight possible opportunities that are worth investigating further (if you have the time!). Thanks again for the comment and good luck with your own systems!

[Nick]

As is a "bear-run on Wall Street" and a "bare run on Wall Street"!

Hi,

Always interesting to follow how your bots and ratings are going. As someone whose done sports ratings for years with varied success, I'm interested to see how you do with the football.

To be honest the longer I've done it the more I've felt it's a bit like reinventing the wheel, especially in static, high liquid markets like pre-off Football the market pretty much tells you what the price should be and often a very good accurate system will only highlight the inadequacy of the system as opposed to value bets. I tend to find with team sports, like football, is that recent form doesn't give you a big enough sample size, or put another way recent form doesn't last long enough to give you a proper sample - although I suppose that's an inherent problem in most sport ratings. I find it's also pretty difficult to factor in things like team line-ups, tactics .etc.

Anyway that's my thoughts on the subject fwiw,

Nick

[Talkbet]

bear/bare & to/too have always been a mystery to me, as Toyah would say.
Cheers for the comment though Cassini :o)

[Cassini]

bear... "bare with me" has a quite different meaning from "bear with me"!