Talkbet

March 30th

Where do I start ? Seems to of been ages since i last posted! I'll go back over Thursday night, another poor night with the Darts. All of the big favourites seemed to do the business and all the handicap bets went down. It's been a poor couple of weeks on the darts with the results all going 'as they should', I used to bet on Darts following that mentality and got nowhere so I'm hopeful that things will turn around soon. Typically the one match where I sided with the favourite was the one time he got turned over with Klassen beating Jenkins.

It's been a poor week overall with the soccer account taking a pounding. The weekend saw plenty of the big hitter international sides all doing the business and I would of thought the bookies also took a bashing over the weekend. The poor week has actually put my soccer account into a loss for the month which is dissapointing but nothing to be concerned about.

I've sat down this morning and written up a spreadsheet to track the various services I use for horse racing and the methods I use for soccer betting. It showed that my new Match Odds application is running badly so I've tweaked it a bit more and will continue to monitor.

I've also added yet another service to my horse racing bets and will be using the selections from EWP, if it's good enough for JP, then it's good enough for me :o)

Golf was also a washout although I had backed Woods to win with a small stake so that paid for most of my losses. These are only small stake trades though, I'm just testing the water.

Two more losing predictions for the powerstats Saturday, after looking through the results for it this morning I see my Powerstats are down 6.5 points since I restarted them. Will have *yet* another look over them over the summer and revise the prices I'm asking for and for doing the back testing as I'm not getting the prices I want on Betfair, therefore all my backtesting was a bit false really.

Bought the Betting Monthly magazine on Saturday, excellent value for money and a decent read. I'll be taking a subscription out for it shortly.

Also worth a shout is the Punters Lounge forum, well worth registering for and reading through, anyone else want a shout while I'm at it ? :o)

Be lucky all.....

March 27th

Very busy at the moment so apologies for lack of updates. Away now for the weekend so will be all quiet on here for a while longer yet :o)

Couple of powerstats for tomorrow:

Away Win predicted Northwich v Rushden & D. Back Rushden & D at odds in excess of 1.89
Away Win predicted Stirling v East Fife. Back East Fife at odds in excess of 3.19

March 26th Update I

Tonights Darts....

Part v Wade
Part can be a frustrating player to fathom out. Last week he seemed to literally give up against Taylor yet he's had some decent enough results in this tournament. His previous meeting with Wade produced a 7-7 draw so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt again, despite the form that Wade is in and back Part + 2.5 legs.
Back Part + 2.5 legs @ 2.14

Taylor v Barneveld
Clash of the titans! Last time out saw Taylor triumphed 8-4 and its hard to bet against the Power again. Barney has hit a bit of form though with good wins over Klaasen and King in the last couple of weeks. I'm venturing into the 2.5 legs market again as those odds look to good to resist.
Back Barneveld +2.5 legs @ 2.28

Mardle v King
King won this 8-1 in their first meeting of the tour and with back to back defeats against Taylor and Wade, Mardle will be looking for some revenge here, can he finally deliver something ? I'll take another chance on him and once more go for the 2.5 leg advantage.
Mardle + 2.5 legs @ 2.04

Jenkins v Klaasen
A 7-7 draw in the first round and thats probably Klaasen's best result so far. I'm going to take the simple option here and side with Jenkins on the Match Odds.
Jenkins to win @ 1.71

March 26th

All quiet really this week hence the lack of updates. My in play football apps have had a lean run, probably only to be expected and they're still nicely in profit for the month. My new application had a couple of close calls yesterday to big wins with an 87th min winner in some obscure South American game turning a £150 win into a £12 loss. I'm still toying with the settings on that app, it only runs during the first half of each game and I'm tempted to 'green up' on all outcomes at half time to try and give a more gradual curve upwards to its profits as opposed to lots of small losses then a big win, decisions decisions......

I've ventured into the golf again this week and put a couple of bets on in the Winner W/O Woods market:
Furyk @ 24
Goosen @ 20

I will be looking to trade out fo these if the odds dip sufficiently enough. I've also put a small lay on Tiger to finish in the Top 5 @ 1.92. My thinking is that if he doesn't win then he's still suffering after his op and probably won't come anywhere, famous last words ?!

Darts on later so I'll go through the fixtures and post my thoughts on them later.

Nothing from Powerstats this week.

The selections have been quiet this week from my two tipping services, I need to go back over the selections though and keep track of where I am, another job to do at some point....

March 23rd

Poor day yesterday for the in play football apps with a £86 loss. Just one of those days, weird how they go though, you just get the feeling its going to be a bad day as the first losses appear and it continues downhill. It's rare things turn around spectacularly for a profit. It's had a good run though so a loss was only to be expected.

All three of the powerstats came in yesterday although the two Greek ones were very short odds, profit is profit though :o)

We also have a powerstat for tonight, not sure if we'll get on at that price though:

Away Win predicted Dag and Red v Brentford. Back Brentford at odds in excess of 2.97

All my golf bets went down as well, I had hopes at least one of them would make the top five as a couple were trading less than my back prices but it wasn't to be!

All my horse selections went down yesterday as well from my two tipping services so that meant a 5 point loss on the day.

Not the best of days yesterday!

Currently a bit bored at work so I'm trading the Botev Plovdiv V Lokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian game that is in play on Betfair Mobile. Currently two nil to Sofia and they're trading at 1.02, a goal for Botev would do me nicely :o)

I've tidied up the links down the side a bit now as well and removed a few old dead ones and added a few new ones. Needs a bit more work but its getting there. If anyone wants a link added then let me know or if anyone knows any decent blogs that need a link then also let me know.

March 22nd

Another poor showing for the powerstats yesterday, I think I'm using this more of an exercise to see what price I can get on each selection at. Here's todays selections:

Away Win predicted Schalke 04 v Hamburg. Back Hamburg at odds in excess of 3.41
Home Win predicted AEK v Levadeiakos. Back AEK at odds in excess of 1.38
Home Win predicted PAOK v Thrasyvoulos. Back PAOK at odds in excess of 1.32

Ended up level yesterday with my two in play applications, they must of turned over 100's and 100's of pounds (yeah I know maybe thats not a lot to a lot of people on here!) probably 1000's thinking about it and I ended the day with a loss of -£1.12 :o)

Just the one selection yesterday from The Form Guru, it traded as low as 1.3 in a photo finish while the other horse was trading at close to 10 for ages while the judges made up their mind but in the end my selection was placed second! I greened out to get my stake back during the photo as I just happened to be on Betfair and watching the odds, still annoying though. Couple of selections from the Form Analyst, only one of them placed so another two points down on that service.

March 21st

Blinding day yesterday for my new subscription to The Form Guru, he came up with a 20/1 winner at Newbury in the 4.25. One point matched at 20's on Betfair pre 'kick off' meant a pleasing day for me. The Form Analyst came up with a single Each Way selection which finished third so money back on that, more or less.

Pretty stunning day for my in play football apps as well with some really decent profits coming in. The bank is slowly getting back to where I want it to be, almost half way there and that's continuing the maximum liability of 2% of my bank on each bet.

I see England won the first of the One Day Internationals in farcical circumstances when the Windies boss took them off after miscalcualting the duckworth lewis system, they needed 4 runs from 4 remaining balls. I dont know the full story but why match officials can't intervene to make it clearer is a bit beyond me, why not go the whole hog and forget the scoreboard during a game ? Just leave it to the two teams to keep track of the scores during the game. How are the crowd supposed to know what each team needs with the duckworth system if the officials still have trouble ? Anyway, I've now put a small lay in of England to win the series as well as my back of Windies.

Plenty of powerstats today:

Home Win predicted Hoffenheim v Hannover. Back Hoffenheim at odds in excess of 1.77
Away Win predicted Leverkusen v Ein Frankfurt. Back Ein Frankfurt at odds in excess of 7.7
Away Win predicted Stuttgart v Hertha. Back Hertha at odds in excess of 3.52
Away Win predicted Fulham v Man United. Back Man United at odds in excess of 1.58
Away Win predicted Northwich v Torquay. Back Torquay at odds in excess of 1.65
Away Win predicted Arbroath v Raith Rvs. Back Raith Rvs at odds in excess of 2.31
Away Win predicted Queens Park v Stirling. Back Stirling at odds in excess of 2.53

March 20th

Well a bit of a washout on the darts last night with only one of the predictions coming in and the two side bets of Over 7.5 180's also going down. Last night's darts was pretty dull, apart from the Jenkins game, the favourites all romped home whilst their opponents looked totally disinterested, not great for us handicap backers! I still think handicap betting is the best route though and hopefully next week will see the games a bit more exciting.

Good start for my new subscription to The Form Guru, yesterday, Mizen Raven did the business at Ludlow and put me 6 points into profit on that account. Early days though so not flicking through the Ferrari brochure just yet.

Friday already, where does the week go ? Should be plenty of powerstats for the weekend, may be some tonight, I'll post them up later if there are.

I've done a few golf bets as well this week. Slightly different tack as I've ventured into the top five finish market and gone with the following:

Sean OHair @ 6.4
David Toms @ 8.6
Kenny Perry @ 6.4
Charley Hoffman @ 14

The top five finish market is pretty quiet so I'll probably just leave the bets to run their course.

Just for a bit of interest I've also backed the Windies to win the One Day International series against England.

March 19th

Apologies, don't have much time these days to post much :o)

Here's my thoughts on tonights darts....

Jenkins v King
Jenkins is surely going to come into form sooner or later although the straight up match odds suggest King is heavy favourite for this. I'm going to side with Jenkins on the handicaps.
Jenkins +2.5 legs @ 1.8
Side bet of over 7.5 180's

Mardle v Wade
One again Mardle is massively priced up as the rank outsider. And once again I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and go with him on the handicaps. He did enough (just!) last week to ensure he overcame Taylor with a +4.5 leg advantage so this week we'll go with him on the 3.5 leg handicap.
Mardle + 3.5 legs @ 1.88

Barney v Klaasen
The battle of the clog wearers :o) This is where you fall into the classic trap in darts. Barney will/should win but hopefully the markets have overreacted enough for us to get a bit of value somewhere...Lets give Klaasen a shot with a 3.5 leg advantage. Klaasen +3.5 legs @ 1.92

Taylor v Part
Great odds here for Part on the handicaps which we can't ignore.
Part +4.5 legs @ 1.95
Side bet of over 7.5 180's

March 18th

Nice to see a powerstat finally come in with Wrexham winning last night. Pity I never got matched on the price I was asking for! Typically, I did get matched on Peterhead and they duely completed the misery by losing 2-1. As I've posted before, I'm just going to play these powerstats with small stakes and at the prices I'm asking then go through them again in the summer. This is also the worst time of year to be punting on football as teams suddenly realise they need to win to get out of trouble while other teams are off and planning their summer hols as they see out the season with nothing to play for.

I've now signed up for another horse tipping service, I've monitored their results for a while so we'll see how that goes. It's with the Form Guru. I'm still with the Form Analyst and punting on his selections and I'm still hopeful we can turn things round on that account.

Just the one powerstat for tonight:

Away Win predicted East Fife v Ayr. Back Ayr at odds in excess of 2.42