Talkbet

February 26th

Looks like I opened a whole can of worms over at The Form Analyst. Yesterday we lost 3 points in a win only bet that traded down to 1.16 in running and the forum on the site became the centre of some heated discussions and posts. The evening gave us another 2 points loss with an each way that went down. Todays email has come through and the guy is taking a break, personally I think the break is well overdue, we're still going to get some tips this weekend (well, thats if I'm not banned....!) but apart from that its going to go quiet till Cheltenham. I've been treated well by the Form Analyst with regards subscriptions but after 10 weeks on the service and no real sign of it picking up yesterday was the final straw for me, hence the posts on their forum. I'll stick with him and see how it goes from here.

On the plus side, the in play football app had another decent night with a 25% profit for the bank. The powerstats are proving a real headache, just seem to be banging my head against a brick wall with them, maybe it's time for me to take a break from them as well :o)

February 25th

Another good night for the in play football app last night adding 4% profit to the bank. I also trialled some powerstats and got 4 of them matched at the odds I wanted. I was asking for 17% on top of the bookie prices so 9 didnt get matched, 2 of the selections won (including Morecome (sp?) who were 2-0 down away!) so I ended up nicely up on the night. I'm still trying different ideas and selections with these powerstats, adding 17% to the bookie prices and back trialling it through previous seasons data obviously gives you a big profit but getting matched at bookie prices + 17% isnt going to happen. I've now settled on 10% for back trialling but I need to whittle down the number of games it selects. Of a weekend it would currently come up with dozens of selections and I dont have the time or cash to back them all.

Had a 3 point maximum bet selection today from The Form analyst, it went down to 1.16 in running but came second. I've had a rant on the forum over there, just felt like throwing my toys out of the pram today. Theres another selection running tonight.

Winning on Betfair is damn hard work :o)

February 24th

I found a glitch in my code for my powerstats which means I need to start working through them all again. I'm trying to be as 'honest' as possible with them to myself, by that I mean I'm trying not to backfit the data to show a profit. What is quite eye opening is that one set of formula (results, recent form, table position etc) can show a huge profit one season but show a huge loss the next. I'm trying my hardest to find a consistent level of profit for the last 3 seasons with the formula I come up with for each league and it's proving very very tricky.
What is obvious though is how the bookies make their money! Using the odds available at the time from the bookies in seasons gone by it's easy using those odds to lay selections and show a profit, it's not so easy laying those prices on Betfair.

Another winning night last night for the in play football app with a 4% increase on the bank. I also managed to fire up my Valuestats app which had Spurs price as a lay with the score at 1-1. Typically they scored with 5 minutes left.

No selections from the Form Analyst yesterday but we have one runner later this afternoon.

February 23rd

A slight losing day for the Powerstats yesterday, I might have a look at laying the opponents and getting the draw as opposed to straight backs of the predictions. All a work in progress really, or maybe add on say 20% to the advised odds and see if I can get that matched on Betfair, if they don't get matched then I leave the bet. Hard to back test that sort of scenario though.

No powerstats for tonight.

The Form Analyst had 2 selections yesterday. both losing and culminating in a loss of 3 points. He seems confident things will pick up in March, lets hope so :o)

Didnt have a chance to try using BetTrader Pro over the weekend, hopefuly some time this week.

The in play football app had a decent enough day yesterday returning an 8% profit on the bank. I have a new app I'd like to get running but am having a few teething problems getting it started at the moment.

I've added a few new blogs on the right, always good to see new blogs coming onto the scene.

February 22nd

Not the best of days yesterday for the Powerstats finishing down about 10 points if you bet 2 points on each selection, just a case of monitoring them for now I think.

The Form Analyst finally hit a winner with his last selection of the day, it looked like another bad day as it had hit 60's in running! 2 points profit on the day though.

Here's todays Powerstats:

Away Win predicted Anderlecht v Standard. Back Standard at odds in excess of 3.0
Home Win predicted Westerlo v Club Brugge. Back Westerlo at odds in excess of 2.7
Home Win predicted Fulham v West Brom. Back Fulham at odds in excess of 1.8
Home Win predicted Liverpool v Man City. Back Liverpool at odds in excess of 1.57
Home Win predicted Catania v Reggina. Back Catania at odds in excess of 1.8
Home Win predicted Fiorentina v Chievo. Back Fiorentina at odds in excess of 1.4

February 21st

A losing day yesterday for The Form Analyst ending the day 2 points down. We go into today with a little trepidation as I don't believe he has had a winning Saturday this year! Still, stats like that are there to be broken.

Another winning day yesterday for the in play football app, it's going to have a busy day today.

Last nights powerstat also came good thanks to Chesterfields 1-0 win over Bournemouth. Here's todays stats, all 24 of them!

Away Win predicted Dender v Mechelen. Back Mechelen at odds in excess of 2.87
Home Win predicted Kortrijk v Charleroi. Back Kortrijk at odds in excess of 2.1
Home Win predicted Roeselare v Bergen. Back Roeselare at odds in excess of 2.1
Home Win predicted Man United v Blackburn. Back Man United at odds in excess of 1.25
Home Win predicted Stoke v Portsmouth. Back Stoke at odds in excess of 2.5
Home Win predicted Plymouth v Sheffield United. Back Plymouth at odds in excess of 3.5
Away Win predicted Sheffield Weds v Crystal Palace. Back Crystal Palace at odds in excess of 3.1
Away Win predicted Southampton v Preston. Back Preston at odds in excess of 2.37
Home Win predicted Carlisle v Stockport. Back Carlisle at odds in excess of 2.5
Home Win predicted Colchester v Southend. Back Colchester at odds in excess of 1.9
Home Win predicted Leeds v Cheltenham. Back Leeds at odds in excess of 1.4
Home Win predicted Northampton v Walsall. Back Northampton at odds in excess of 2.2
Away Win predicted Swindon v Scunthorpe. Back Scunthorpe at odds in excess of 2.25
Away Win predicted Accrington v Dag and Red. Back Dag and Red at odds in excess of 2.37
Home Win predicted Aldershot v Morecambe. Back Aldershot at odds in excess of 2.0
Away Win predicted Barnet v Bradford. Back Bradford at odds in excess of 2.1
Home Win predicted Bury v Notts County. Back Bury at odds in excess of 1.72
Away Win predicted Chester v Exeter. Back Exeter at odds in excess of 1.9
Home Win predicted Gillingham v Macclesfield. Back Gillingham at odds in excess of 1.66
Home Win predicted Luton v Shrewsbury. Back Luton at odds in excess of 2.87
Away Win predicted Rochdale v Brentford. Back Brentford at odds in excess of 3.25
Home Win predicted Lorient v Sochaux. Back Lorient at odds in excess of 2.05
Home Win predicted Roma v Siena. Back Roma at odds in excess of 1.57
Home Win predicted Aberdeen v Dundee United. Back Aberdeen at odds in excess of 2.2

February 20th Update I

Tonights powerstat:

Home Win predicted Chesterfield v Bournemouth. Back Chesterfield at odds in excess of 2.0

Loads for tomorrow!

February 20th

Welcome to the Talkbet blog, sponsored by Racing Traders, yes that's Racing Traders....suppliers of the great trading platform BetTrader Pro, what an awesome product it really is, is that ok Adam ? ;o)

Seriously, many thanks to Adam at Racing Traders for sorting me out loads of free minutes to use on their product. Hopefully have a chance to try out some new trading techniques over the weekend.

The in play football app took a bit of a pasting on Wednesday night, probably to be expected given the way it's performed recently, still nicely up though. Made a small profit last night but nothing to retire on, just yet :o)

There will be plenty of powerstats predictions this weekend so I'll post them as soon as I have them, they're still work in progress so it's just a case of monitoring them or maybe just sticking a couple of quid on each one.

The Form Analyst has had a couple of steady'ish days although I think I'm down a little over the last couple of days but nothing to much.

Just finished yet another load of work for my valuestats app, had to rework all the algorithms for it, hopefully do some testing over the weekend.

February 18th

Another 2 points lost yesterday with the Form Analyst and currently 3 points down today. That account really needs a good couple of days, seem to have one good day followed by a couple of days wiping out all profit.

Winning night last night though for the in play football app, each winning day increases the bank and the stakes slightly.

The powerstats also had another good night by the looks of things, theres a couple tonight:

Home Win predicted Man United v Fulham. Back Man United at odds in excess of 1.25
Away Win predicted Ipswich v Nott'm Forest. Back Nott'm Forest at odds in excess of 4.33

Heres the tables as well based on current and overall form:

Man United 11.0 61.0 260.0 188.0 1217.0 13.0 32.0 178.0 108.0 426.0 1643.0
Everton 13.0 29.0 106.0 104.0 555.0 12.0 30.0 106.0 86.0 308.0 863.0
Liverpool 12.0 47.0 112.0 96.0 575.0 13.0 36.0 100.0 68.0 272.0 847.0
Arsenal 12.0 45.0 84.0 64.0 425.0 13.0 25.0 68.0 62.0 217.0 642.0
Aston Villa 12.0 36.0 62.0 56.0 334.0 13.0 40.0 138.0 54.0 286.0 620.0
Man City 13.0 48.0 120.0 74.0 556.0 12.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 14.0 570.0
Wigan 13.0 40.0 82.0 48.0 382.0 12.0 15.0 30.0 30.0 105.0 487.0
Newcastle 12.0 29.0 46.0 44.0 255.0 13.0 12.0 72.0 72.0 228.0 483.0
Chelsea 13.0 41.0 48.0 34.0 253.0 12.0 34.0 46.0 18.0 116.0 369.0
Bolton 12.0 26.0 38.0 36.0 212.0 13.0 17.0 38.0 28.0 111.0 323.0
West Brom 13.0 32.0 54.0 50.0 294.0 12.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 24.0 318.0
Fulham 11.0 45.0 58.0 46.0 311.0 12.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 317.0
Tottenham 13.0 29.0 48.0 36.0 245.0 12.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 70.0 315.0
West Ham 13.0 37.0 32.0 24.0 181.0 12.0 17.0 28.0 28.0 101.0 282.0
Hull 12.0 21.0 34.0 34.0 191.0 13.0 21.0 18.0 14.0 67.0 258.0
Sunderland 13.0 32.0 16.0 12.0 104.0 12.0 16.0 42.0 42.0 142.0 246.0
Stoke 12.0 39.0 38.0 30.0 213.0 13.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 216.0
Blackburn 13.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 132.0 11.0 12.0 6.0 6.0 30.0 162.0
Portsmouth 13.0 32.0 18.0 14.0 114.0 12.0 12.0 8.0 8.0 36.0 150.0
Middlesbrough 12.0 23.0 8.0 8.0 63.0 13.0 10.0 22.0 22.0 76.0 139.0

Swansea 16.0 22.0 1880.0 1794.0 7456.0 15.0 31.0 406.0 398.0 835.0 8291.0
Bristol City 17.0 20.0 1128.0 902.0 4306.0 15.0 45.0 1060.0 1002.0 2107.0 6413.0
Reading 16.0 27.0 898.0 572.0 3293.0 15.0 35.0 584.0 522.0 1141.0 4434.0
Doncaster 15.0 15.0 776.0 662.0 3005.0 16.0 32.0 632.0 572.0 1236.0 4241.0
Burnley 16.0 22.0 864.0 746.0 3360.0 16.0 34.0 292.0 234.0 560.0 3920.0
Coventry 16.0 17.0 764.0 724.0 3033.0 15.0 29.0 140.0 132.0 301.0 3334.0
Cardiff 14.0 21.0 668.0 474.0 2499.0 15.0 33.0 392.0 382.0 807.0 3306.0
Preston 17.0 26.0 716.0 364.0 2538.0 16.0 24.0 350.0 350.0 724.0 3262.0
QPR 15.0 22.0 444.0 370.0 1724.0 16.0 25.0 500.0 500.0 1025.0 2749.0
Birmingham 17.0 25.0 514.0 340.0 1907.0 15.0 42.0 308.0 282.0 632.0 2539.0
Blackpool 16.0 13.0 382.0 380.0 1539.0 16.0 36.0 440.0 410.0 886.0 2425.0
Norwich 16.0 16.0 542.0 486.0 2128.0 17.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 52.0 2180.0
Ipswich 16.0 17.0 124.0 120.0 509.0 16.0 40.0 854.0 752.0 1646.0 2155.0
Barnsley 15.0 15.0 318.0 292.0 1261.0 15.0 20.0 360.0 360.0 740.0 2001.0
Wolves 16.0 25.0 294.0 112.0 1019.0 17.0 51.0 530.0 394.0 975.0 1994.0
Watford 15.0 17.0 488.0 456.0 1937.0 15.0 9.0 18.0 18.0 45.0 1982.0
Crystal Palace 15.0 18.0 316.0 224.0 1190.0 14.0 27.0 204.0 194.0 425.0 1615.0
Nott'm Forest 16.0 14.0 248.0 246.0 1004.0 16.0 28.0 268.0 228.0 524.0 1528.0
Derby 15.0 16.0 236.0 176.0 900.0 15.0 22.0 298.0 298.0 618.0 1518.0
Charlton 16.0 14.0 350.0 346.0 1410.0 16.0 9.0 18.0 18.0 45.0 1455.0
Sheffield United 16.0 18.0 156.0 122.0 608.0 16.0 47.0 354.0 272.0 673.0 1281.0
Plymouth 15.0 13.0 242.0 226.0 965.0 17.0 29.0 128.0 108.0 265.0 1230.0
Southampton 16.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 49.0 16.0 33.0 518.0 492.0 1043.0 1092.0
Sheffield Weds 15.0 21.0 94.0 50.0 353.0 17.0 22.0 236.0 236.0 494.0 847.0

February 17th Update I

Quick post with some powerstats for tonight:

Home Win predicted Burnley v Coventry. Back Burnley at odds in excess of 1.83
Home Win predicted Doncaster v Bristol City. Back Doncaster at odds in excess of 2.4
Home Win predicted Plymouth v Crystal Palace. Back Plymouth at odds in excess of 2.8
Away Win predicted Sheffield Weds v Barnsley. Back Barnsley at odds in excess of 4.0
Home Win predicted Watford v Swansea. Back Watford at odds in excess of 2.87
Away Win predicted Hartlepool v Leicester. Back Leicester at odds in excess of 1.85
Home Win predicted Southend v Crewe. Back Southend at odds in excess of 1.72