Talkbet

January 29th

Better post something I suppose to justify the couple of quid a month this blog costs! Still all very quiet from me on the betting front. No football bets for a good couple of weeks, my big losses over December and January have really hit my confidence and enthusiasm for six. I used to enjoy ploughing through stats or writing new apps to try but i just don't have the inclination at the moment. Maybe if/when my bank gets back to a reasonable level I will get excited about it all again.

The only thing going at the moment is my selections I get from The Form Analyst, no pressure mate but I'm looking at your selections to build my bank back up again :o) Still on a poor run though, 5 points loss Saturday then a few days of no selections and another point loss yesterday. Couple of selections today so let's see how they go.

I've still been working on my Powerstats app but I am finding that hard work as well. I wrote an app that currently takes 7 hours to crunch a seasons worth of data, so it takes almost a day for the last 3 seasons. I've finally come up with some numbers now for English Premiership home wins that have produced a consistent 7 points profit over the last 3 seasons, wow :o) To be fair, that's bookie prices so we might be able to squeeze 10 points out of it if and when I start it up. The thought of trawling through all the possible leagues over the past 3 seasons is quite daunting though if its going to take a day for each one so I'm trying to find a way of streamlining the app.

Yesterday I sent out an email at work as a bit of fun with a list of last nights 6 premier league games. You needed to choose home/draw/away for each one. I spent all of 10 seconds on it yet managed to predict 5 of the 6 outcomes correctly with only Blackburn letting me down at home to Bolton. It makes you wonder if its really worth all the time and effort researching stats and analysing games when you might be better off just going with your first hunch.

Now can someone give me a 1000/1 winner please, as a mate is off to Vegas next weekend to celebrate his 40th and I'd love to go but funds don't allow me :o)

January 23rd

Thanks for the fantastic support and the vast amount of comments, both of you :o) Still reeling badly from the last month or two but I suppose it's just another lesson learned in this betting lark. Looking at it, I think I was seriously overstaking in my football app, my maximum liability on each outcome was between 7% and 18%, bearing in mind the amount of games that go on, this was far to much. I'm going to rework my in play football app so that when I get my bank back up to a reasonable size again I can set the stake easily. At the moment I have to recompile the application each time I need to change the stake so it's not ideal.

I've contacted Betfair and asked for my p/l statement since Jan 08, I'd like it also from Jan 07 but I'm not sure they go back this far. I emailed them a couple of days ago but haven't received anything as yet.

The Form Analyst has still been on a poor run of form, with some horrendous luck thrown in as well. Recently he's been recommending a lot of Each Ways which have been coming unplaced, yesterday he tipped a horse at 24's on Betfair but for win only, it came second. I've had to reduce my stakes for this service and more or less write the money off that I've lost on it. It's my fault really as the points level I was using was far to high for the size of my bank, if yesterdays horse had won then on a points level it would of recouped most/all of the losses accrued but due to my reduction in stakes I'd of only recouped about 25% of losses. I've just turned it into a damage limitation exercise now.

I've still got a few other projects on the go, namely Powerstats which is turning into an application of monumental proportions and my valuestats application which is being converted to C# by a developer I know. The target is to have the valuestats app ready for the start of the 09/10 football season.

January 18th

Another killer day for the in play app with a £236 loss and I've now had to turn it off. Not sure where I go from here (is it down to the lake I fear?), I've just done a p/l for the last 30 days and I've lost 1.7k in football, I am feeling gutted, and thats with halving my stake earlier this month! My bank is now pretty much shot to pieces and maybe I need a good break before I think about what to do next. Its been running for a couple of years and has consistently made money but it seems to of been really start and stop this season. I need to decide whether this is just a blip over the course of a few months or whether it's really run its course. This time a couple of years ago it made almost 4k between Jan and May, maybe the markets have changed. This weekend its lost almost £500 and thats at half the stakes of this time last month.

Nothing from The Form Analyst today, may need to lower my points stakes with that service as well.

Yes. I am feeling pi**ed off!

January 17th

Currently a bad day. The Form Analyst has had a stinker the last couple of days, 4 predictions yesterday and 4 points loss, loads of predictions today culminating in a 7'ish point loss, although it could of been so different with one of the picks coming down to 1.5 in running after starting off at 11's. It's all about value but boy do I need a few good days with this service.

Also taking a bit of a hit on the in play football. Just seen Wolves take the lead and thats pushed the losses up to -£188. It could all of been so different if it weren't for yet another late late Man U goal, I have lost track of the times Man Utd have done me this season.

As I've read elsewhere today, this betting lark is such a fine line at time.

I managed to do some rework of my valuestats app yesterday and it's now supplying odds for home teams, just need to do the away team odds next.

January 15th

A good night for the in play app pulling in a welcome £93 and also a good day for The Form Analyst as well with a 2 point win on a 4/1 shot at kempton last night. the other 2 selections from him were losing ones but the winner made it a decent day.

I have just watched todays Form Analyst selection via Betfair Mobile and it must of come a close second trading down to 1.5ish. It was an Each Way though so I came out about even on it via Betfair.

I personally didn't get involved in any betting last night, my Valuestats app was coming up with some bizarre odds for the Southend v chelsea game, an algorithm in there clearly isn't working so I've noted it and will take a look at some point.

I couldn't see any value in the Man U game although my app had Man U at 1.09 (with the score at 1-0) while they were available for about 1.13 on Betfair, marked as value but not enough for me to get involved.

Done a bit more work on Powerstats MkII, hopefully have something up and running within a week I reckon.

January 14th

Good result at Ashton Gate last night and safely into the 4th Round of the FA Cup. We play yet another championship team - Swansea at home. From last season, apart from Man Utd away we have played only championship teams in the FA Cup and conceded just one goal (home to Plymouth, won 2-1). The omens are there for another march to the arch... :o)

The in play app took a bit of a hammering on Monday night with a £93 hit, had about 7 losing bets on the trot. Last night was no better with it down about £30. I also placed a few 'value' bets using my valuestats app and these came unstuck to the tune of £50. It flagged up Orient being 1-0 up as a good back price, they were 1.93 on Betfair and my app had them down at 1.6! They lost 1-4 in the end....
It also had a lay of Millwall down as value at 1-1 but they won 2-3 with a goal 3 mins from time, love those late goals, not...! A lay of Birmingham at home to Wolves with the score at 0-1 to Wolves proved a better prediction though.

The Form Analyst had a good day yesterday with just one prediction and it coming home at 5's on Betfair. 3 predictions today, fingers crossed...!

Just got time to have a quick browse through the betting blogs out there, don't seem to have much time these days!

January 12th

Fidning it hard work keeping this blog going at the moment! I dont have access to Betfair at work so I can't really go into much detail about how the betting has gone recently. Saturday looked like being a decent day with the in play app up over £120 at one point but a few hits in the last few games took it's toll meant a profit of only about £6 in the end!
Sunday the in play app finally had a decent day with a profit of £360. That's with it using half usual stakes, I don't regret halving the stakes, I had no choice as my bank was severely depleted.  

I've now got a developer on board for my Valuestat application which I plan on releasing at the beginning of next season, this time next year we'll be millionaires Rodney....I'll probably be on the lookout for beta testers at some stage so keep coming back and checking the blog if you fancy it!

Only a small number of selections over the weekend from The Form Analyst, ended up down about 2.5 points so still waiting for a good run from that account.

I also managed a bit more work on the new powerstats over the weekend, it's going to be a major application by the time it's finished, just hope it makes money!

January 10th

Time for a quick post as the game is off this afternoon at Fratton Park. Managed to do a decent bit of betting this week using my Valuestats application. I basically look at all the games in play then fire up my application so it tells me what it thinks the current odds should be for various markets, it makes for easy betting, just put the bets on and forget about them :o)

It took a nasty hit in the Spurs v Burnley game earlier this wekk but the value bets have been gradually clawing the cash back, only a couple of quid down now after a few decent evenings.

Another 2 point horse racing loss on Thursday with a 1 point Each Way bet given out from The Form Analyst. 3 picks today from him and all 1 point each way's at decent odds, if a couple of them come good then we'll have things nicely back on track. The Form Analyst looks for value and as I'm a keen follower and believer in value I know that we will always have losing streaks but should come out good in the end.

January 8th

Couple of interesting evenings betting on the Carling Cup! Tuesday couldn't of gone much worse, the in play app lost about £90 and it was on 13 consecutive losing bets at one point. As you all know, I bet on value so overtime I should make a profit, having 13 consecutive losing bets makes it hard to take sometimes though!

I also started using my ValueStats application, this was telling me that Spurs were a big lay @ 2.8 with the score at 0-1 at half time. As we all know, Spurs ended up winning 4-1! I also got stung a couple of times laying them next goal and by the time the fourth went in I'd had enough, typically they didn't score any more after that. My betting using my value method ended about £80 down on the night.

Last night we had the same scenario. Championship team taking a 1-0 lead against a Premier side, the Betfair forums were awash with people 'piling' into Man Utd at 2.9ish and laying Derby like mad at 2.8. I'd been stung the night before but after a couple of postings on the forum with my opinion that Man Utd were a lay at that price (my value app had them at 3.5!) I talked myself into it and layed them, only got about £25 back but it felt good all the same :o) The in play app also had a decent night mainly due to punters piling into Man Utd and my app happily laying them, it finished about £130 up on the night.

If betting was as easy as waiting for a 'big' team or favourite to go a goal behind or still be struggling at 0-0 and then piling into backing them, we'd all be selling our houses and using the cash to become millionaires (unless of course we already live in million pound houses ala John2E.. ;o) ). A lot of people got stung last night on that result, it felt good to swim against the tide and come out on top!

Nothing from The Form Analyst with horse tips over the last couple of days due to the weather claiming a lot of the racing. Need that account to come up with a few winners though before my month subscription runs out :o)

January 6th

Nothing new to post really, started a new contract yesterday so back to the grindstone :o)

Thanks again for the comment JP, nice to get some dialogue going on this blog! The levelling off has saved me this season in a couple of games. The big one being the Barcelona v Real Madrid game, for the sake of 5 quid I got out of a £150 loss and to be honest I'm probably in profit at the moment for my 'levelling off' of games. I don't do it to often, for instance on Saturday i watched the closing stages of the Preston v Liverpool game, I knew i had a -£40 hit on Liverpool if they scored again or +£80 if nothing else happened at 0-1. 10 seconds from time Liverpool broke away and got their second, not a major hit but if I could of been bothered to get off the sofa, get my laptop and level off I'd of saved that hit for the sake of a few quid. I think the odds at the end of games get very hazy and it's difficult to put an exact figure on the value I'm giving away, probably betting on a 7 or 8% chance as opposed to a 10% chance. The powerstats just aren't hitting the figures that, according to my findings, they should be so therefore I've got to bite the bullet and admit that something is wrong with my working out somewhere. This has gone back to a work in progress and I'll start trialling the new powerstats once I've reworked them.

Nothing much from The Form Analyst at the moment, the weather is obviously hitting the racing. Small win on Sunday and small(er) loss yesterday.

The in play app made a good recovery on Sunday night for a £17 profit. Fell over a bit last night though with a £31 loss, glad I've reduced the stakes!