Talkbet

No Chicken Dinners Last Week But Hamburgers Tomorrow

Friday again and another week goes by! Last weekend was a total wipeout for the M3 selections, 6 picks in all and not a single chicken dinner amongst them, the losses should put the Return On Investment to a more realistic level now anyway, I'll work it out sometime soon.

This week I've been concentrating on the pre-race horse trading application. I've moved away from using a particular set of pointers, I'd stuck with them for months but really wasn't getting anywhere so I've ditched them and started afresh! Yesterday looked like a really promising start for them as the app produced a massive return picking out some great steamers (9's into 6's) but today has been very stop/start and ended with a small loss. I'll probably leave it for the weekend, have a think, examine the trades and start it again on Monday after tweaking it a little.

The in play football app is still performing well although it's had a couple of losing days. Today looked like a decent day until Tunisia scored a 90th min winner and its been one loss after another after that pushing it into a minus figure!

With cup action taking place tomorrow we don't have many fixtures so there's just the one M3 selection been thrown up:

Hertha 4.0 2.38
Hamburg 2.15 3.0
Draw 3.5 3.25
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.0

I'll post any selections for Sunday at some point before then. Hopefully the M3 selections will get back on track tomorrow with the Hamburgers bringing in a tasty return for us.....

 

M3 Football Selections For 22.01.12

Total wipeout yesterday as all four selections failed to come in, I knew this would happen at some stage! Only Scunthorpe were close really as they conceded an equaliser with 6 minutes left after being 1-0 up for the majority of the game. Days like this happen, it's all part and parcel of the game we play, one day all of the selections will come in.....

Moving onto today and we have just two, I've also added them in as a double:

Osasuna 2.0 3.25
Valencia 5.8 2.25
Draw 3.05 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.25

Bologna 2.0 2.5
Parma 2.2 3.0
Draw 22.0 3.0
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.0

I also had a little dabble with my theory of going against the grain in play, and while the rest of the world were laying Bolton as they took an early lead at home to Liverpool, I took some of the 3's available for them with my thinking that that price was artificially high. They went on to win 3-1 so thats the first dabble in the bag, so to speak.

 

 

M3 Predictions For 21.01.12

4 selections for today with some decent prices in there as well. As per usual I've also put them into various Double combinations:

Hoffenheim 3.7 1.85
Hannover 2.47 4.0
Draw 3.08 3.6
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.0

Wolfsburg 2.13 1.8
FC Koln 2.75 4.2
Draw 5.97 3.75
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.2

Scunthorpe 2.0 2.75
Stevenage 3.78 2.38
Draw 4.24 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.75

Sociedad 2.13 2.9
Ath Madrid 2.88 2.4
Draw 5.51 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.9

 

January Roundup

When this blog started it was pretty much a daily update, then it became a weekly and it's now slowly becoming a monthly update! As I've said before, as well as read on other blogs out there, the longer you leave it between posts the harder it is to come up with anything worthwhile to say.

One big positive is the performance of the new M3 selections, these are on a tremendous run and is currently returning a whopping (and totally unsustainable) 44% ROI. Obviously I'll be letting these run till the end of the season, I feel far more comfortable with the number of selections it now comes up with, far better than the dozens it used to find each weekend. Also, because of the relatively few selections and the fact I put them into various Double multiples you also have the chance of a massive bumper payout if all the selections come in.

The in play football trading has had a real tough time recently, the usual story, anything I 'tweet' fails and anything I keep to myself and don't bother announcing tends to come in! The majority of trades are failing though and I've eased up on this particualr form of trading. I need to investigate better methods of trading football, although that's something I've been probably saying for years now. I like the idea of combining some correct score trades along with the over/unders markets, I keep reading about some 'Homer' strategy so need to look into that. I also have an idea running through my head about opposing the crowd, you know the type of thing, Real Madrid go a goal down and the whole world goes charging off to lay the opposition, surely that must mean the price of the opposition is artificially high ? Not sure about it, you'd need some nerves of steel at times and the stakes will need to be kept small but its an idea.

The pre race horse trading application continues to be tweaked and prodded sometimes on a daily basis. As before, it's churning over plenty of money and running at either break even or a tiny profit. Each tweak to try and improve it's return tends to set it backwards so it's a continual ongoing process.

The big news for me is the re-introduction of my original in play football app. This was retired over a year ago but I decided to look back over the figures for it, dust it down and start it up again. It's only running small stakes but has already had 4 winning days out of 5 and brought in a decent return, always good when that happens but I'm also well aware that it had some terrible losing runs and one of them could well be just round the corner. Re-running it has given me some new ideas for some other markets that I could potentially exploit on Betfair by using an automated system, plenty of new ideas to be getting on with!

 

M3 Prediction For 15.01.12

Morning all. Nice winner yesterday as Hereford won 0-1 at Dagenham & Redbridge. Pity Palace nor Exeter couldn't follow suit to land at least one of the doubles we had running on the selections.

Just one selection today and it's over in Spain:

Sp Gijon 2.19 3.1
Malaga 3.71 2.3
Draw 3.65 3.25
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.1

 

M3 Selections For The Weekend

The late goal curse was not on our side last week as Valencia equalised 3 minutes from time at Villareal, this killed off our 11/1 double on the two picks we had for last weekend. Still had a profit from the two selections but close to being a bumper payout!

Haven't had a chance this week to put up a proper post, I'll try and sort something out next week.

Here's todays selections, if there are some for tomorrow then I'll post them up later. I've also stuck them in various double multiples:

Crystal Palace 1.91 2.5
Leeds 4.56 2.75
Draw 3.91 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.5

Exeter 1.63 2.4
Hartlepool 6.4 3.0
Draw 4.35 3.2
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.4

Dag and Red 2.73 2.0
Hereford 2.78 3.75
Draw 3.66 3.4
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.75

 

M3 Football Selections For The Weekend

Bristol City left it late on Tuesday to give us a winning selection, it's always good when last minute goals go your way! I'll get round to updating the ongoing ROI at some point for these selections.
We have a couple of selections for the weekend, I'll also be sticking them in a double. 

Saturday 7th January

Morecambe 2.44 1.91
Northampton 2.61 3.9
Draw 4.86 3.5
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.9

Sunday 8th January

Villarreal 1.82 3.0
Valencia 6.6 2.3
Draw 3.35 3.4
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.0

 

M3 Football Selection For 03.01.12

The curse of the last minute goal struck for us yesterday as Birmingham hit a 90th minute equaliser (a penalty, just to really rub it in) at Peterborough. Both the M3 selections ended 1-1 so no wins as yet in 2012! We have a selection for tonight though so hopefully this one will kick things off for the New Year:

Bristol City 1.59 2.1
Millwall 4.17 3.5
Draw 7.67 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.1

 

M3 Football Selections For 02.01.12

Good morning and Happy New Year to any readers out there that still come back here from time to time!

Just a quick post really for a couple of football selections later, hopefully the selections can start 2012 the way they finished 2011! Friday night saw Rotherham go down at Cheltenham and then in an early kick off on Saturday saw Preston lose at home to Sheff Wednesday. It was then left to the two draw selections at Swansea and Bolton in the Premier League, these both came in (I must get round to joining Cassini's Friendly Tipster League to show them how it's done sometime ;o) ) and I also had a decent return for the double on these two results.

Today we have two more selections and once again I also have them in a double:

Peterboro 1.77 2.88
Birmingham 4.65 2.38
Draw 4.52 3.4
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.88

Rochdale 2.0 2.63
Preston 4.21 2.63
Draw 3.81 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.63

 

M3 Selections For The Weekend

We have one selection for tonight and three for tomorrow, maybe some more for the fixtures on Bank Holiday Monday.

Friday 30th December

Cheltenham 2.44 2.0
Rotherham 2.43 3.6
Draw 5.58 3.5
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6

Saturday 31st December

Bolton 2.59 2.2
Wolves 5.36 3.4
Draw 2.34 3.25
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.25

Swansea 8.0 5.5
Tottenham 2.33 1.67
Draw 2.24 3.6
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.6

Preston 2.18 2.88
Sheffield Weds 2.78 2.38
Draw 5.5 3.4
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.88