Apologies for the lack of posts this weekend and the late posting today, just been one of those weekends. If I have time later I might go through this afternoons football and see if there's anything I fancy, although like most others I'm very wary of punting to much on meaningless end of season games.
The M3 Football System has thrown up the following:
Southampton 4.33 1.75 Stoke 2.95 5.25 Draw 2.33 3.8 *** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.8
West Brom 3.42 4.5 Man United 2.77 1.83 Draw 2.88 3.9 *** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.9
Torino 3.0 2.1 Catania 2.07 3.6 Draw 5.44 3.2 *** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6
The DB9 Horse Racing System had a loser yesterday but has the following for today:
3:10 Ripon 1 Pt Win Spinatrix
3:10 Ripon 1 Pt Win Caranbola
I'm leaving the golf well alone, Keegan Bradley is nicely placed to win it and is now trading at evens although he has traded down to 1.52. None of the others in contention figure highly in my ratings so it's just a case of hanging in there and hoping Bradley brings it home. We were a little unlucky last week with Garcia and Lingmerth coming up against an in form Woods so maybe this week we can snag the winner.
Good start to the golf yesterday as Keegan (do you see my tenuous link there?) Bradley 3 clear after the first round and is now trading at just over 3's on the exchanges. I'm adding a couple more outsiders into the mix here, they're well regarded on my stats and have started the tournament well:
Patrick Reed 2 Pts Win @ 270
Ted Potter Jr 2 Pts Win @ 48
A nice winner as well on the horses as the DB9 system got it's first winner at a juicy Betfair SP of 16.5, the updated returns for the two horse systems are now as follows:
DB9 Selections Total Selections 6 Points Return +10.5
Vantage Selections Total Selections 2 Points Return -2
I'll also probably have the odd punt or two on the football this weekend. Funny how the media are desperate to keep some interest going in the Premiership as "Arsenal and Tottenham battle it out for 4th place and Champions League qualification". The truth is, noone outside of those two clubs could care less. Nothing against them and I'll probably watch and follow either of them as they play in Europe but it's not for the title and it's not for relegation so there's very little drama for the rest of us to be bothered with really. And on that note, I'd best sign off.
Tricky field to pick through this week as my stats have highlighted Jason Day as a potential winner but at odds of 15 you have to commit a decent number of points to make the return worthwhile. Anyway, I've gone for 5 Points on Day and 3 Points on Keegan Bradley which leaves us plenty of scope to get involved with other contenders as the tournament progresses.
Jason Day 5 Pts Win @ 15
Keegan Bradley 3 Pts Win @ 22
Here are a selection of other players along with their current exchange odds that the stats have highlighted and I'll be keeping an eye on.
Vaughn Taylor 240 Greg Chalmers 120 D J Trahan 630 Patrick Reed 480 Steve Flesch 1000 Pat Perez 100 Matt Bettencourt 450 Ted Potter Jr 240 Erik Compton 400 Nicholas Thompson 480 John Senden 80 Chez Reavie 440 Joe Ogilvie 1000
I can take a bit of heart this week with the golf predictions as we were pretty close to a monster win with our back of David Lingmerth @ 380 advised on Friday morning. I also mentioned him @ 1000 on Wednesday but I also mentioned a bunch of others so not much kudos there... To be fair, the initial excitment on Sunday morning of seeing your 380/1 shot now trading at less than 10/1 fades away as it slowly dawns on you that he still only has a 10% of chance of winning. And no, I didn't trade out. Sergio was also nicely in with a shout but with the form that Woods was in in the 4th round you just pretty much knew what was going to happen, the markets said as much as well with Woods going odds on very early on on the final day. Anyway, a max loss for the week but happy enough with the selections:
Golf Return For 2013
Total Staked : 391 Points Return -144 Points ROI -37%
Just the one winner for the M3 selections recently although it was a well priced one so they're just flatlining really, which is quite apt considering they'll be switched off permanently in the next few weeks:
M3 Football Selections Total Points Staked (Based on 10 points per selection) 1890 Total Return -145 Return On Investment -8%
The posted punts took a bit of pounding over the weekend although they're still in profit so no real damage done. It could have been so different if Fulham (available @ 4.8) had held on to their lead until half time against Liverpool. But they didnt so it wasn't.
Posted punts ongoing total +4.35 Points
The horse selections have been very quiet of late but as soon as the systems flag up any picks I'll post them up here. I've been working on a manual horse selection process recently, basically it displays via a web page stacks of data for each horse and race and leaves it up to you to select the 'winner', it's interesting scanning each race and forming an opinion on each of the entrants, although very time consuming it has to be said.