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Close But....

It was a case of close but no cigar for the punts over the weekend.

The M3 Football Selections had a decent start on Saturday as Sociedad beat Valencia which meant we were close to a nice return on the Doubles multiples if just one of the two selections could come in on Sunday. Unfortunately, Newcastle meekly surrendered at Everton where we needed a draw and Espanyol could only draw at home to Sevilla where we needed a home win. As far as the straight single selections went I think the weekend finished just about level, maybe a tiny profit. I stand to be corrected but I think that's all the major European Leagues finished now (except for France and the M3 selections don't have any interest in our friends across the Channel) so I'll sort out the final ROI for the season and post it up at some point. I'm still unsure whether I'll revisit the selections over the Summer. I've been pleased with the number of bets they produce since reworking them last December but the overall return has remained very static since they started off with some very pleasing results and an ROI approaching 50% at one point. I remember stating at the time that this ROI was obviously totally unsustainable but I did hope it would level out at around 15%'ish, I think they dropped well below that at one point, it'll be interesting to see what the final figure is anyway.

It was a similar story with the new golf selection system. One of the selections was Ian Poulter and he found himself in the lead after the first day after being backed at 90, he traded as low as 9(ish) before having a complete 'mare' on the second day and that was pretty much the end of that. A few of the other selections did enough to trade out from with a profit (I personally just let the bets run as I only had small stakes on them anyway) and I think you could of made a tiny profit overall if you traded the selections. I am currently spending a lot of time now refining the selections and will be posting the picks for the forthcoming tournament starting Thursday either later today or tomorrow.

Thats about me up to date, I'm still having a punt on the IPL and really enjoying following the whole tournament. The in play football trading will now grind to a bit of a halt as the main seasons have drawn to a close, probably for the best as the past month has been very disappointing despite plenty of confidence in my statistics and thought processes!

 

M3 Football Selections For The Weekend

Just a quick post with the weekends selections:

Saturday

Sociedad 1.95 2.7
Valencia 3.21 2.5
Draw 5.64 3.4
Home game count : 43. Away game count : 45
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.7

Sunday

Everton 2.7 2.2
Newcastle 4.07 3.2
Draw 2.61 3.5
Home game count : 54. Away game count : 61
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.5

Espanol 1.75 2.8
Sevilla 8.0 2.38
Draw 3.29 3.5
Home game count : 56. Away game count : 48
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.8

 

PGA Players Championship Picks

I've been playing around with some golf data and some neural networking and have come up with the following picks for this years Players Championship. I'll post them for a bit of fun but obviously claim glory if any of them actually win or finish high up :o)

Woods Tiger
Mahan Hunter
Singh Vijay
Molinari Francesco
Love III Davis
Slocum Heath
Westwood Lee
Crane Ben
Poulter Ian
Toms David

 

M3 Football Selections For 06.05.12

Morning all, nice winner for us yesterday as Fiorentina won 1-0 at Lecce. Three more selections today, as usual I'll also stick them in a combination of doubles.

Bolton 2.73 2.0
West Brom 3.88 3.75
Draw 2.66 3.5
Home game count : 60. Away game count : 62
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.5

QPR 5.29 1.83
Stoke 2.21 4.2
Draw 2.79 3.75
Home game count : 37. Away game count : 53
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.75

Novara 3.8 2.0
Cesena 2.83 3.8
Draw 2.6 3.3
Home game count : 38. Away game count : 51
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.8

 

M3 Football Predictions For 05.05.12

Quick post today, just a couple of selections. They're both a decent price though so 'only' need one to come in for a return!

Hertha 8.0 1.95
Hoffenheim 2.64 3.6
Draw 2.02 3.6
Home game count : 8. Away game count : 29
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6

Lecce 3.78 1.95
Fiorentina 2.21 3.8
Draw 3.54 3.4
Home game count : 34. Away game count : 53
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.8

 

May Update

So we're into May already and it's about time for another update. It's probably for the best that the various major football leagues around Europe are now drawing to a close as my in play trading of that particular sport is on a slow downward slope. I'm not quite sure what I'm doing wrong, I'm keeping my discipline, sticking to good solid statistics etc. it's just that the results aren't coming. Last night looked like being a cracking night and I was nicely up by 7:30 as there was a whole glut of early kick offs around Europe. Unfortunately everything I touched after that failed to bring in anything thus causing a solid profit to turn into a nasty loss, frustrating but nothing I could do about it. I was quite hopeful about the systems I've been using trading in play football but the returns on them, particularly the one that focuses on using historical teams statistics (for example laying 0-0 half time if both teams have a very low % of their games having no score at half time), are just having a steadily increasing negative figure next to them. The next goal system is running at a small loss on the returns so there's still a bit of hope with that one though I think.
I do plan on spending a bit of time during the Summer months coming up with a system that is a bit more definitive, at the moment I just look through the fixtures and then examine each team's statistics so for example I might see that 85% of Chelsea's home games have finished with Over 1.5 goals and they are playing Norwich at home who have a history of 79% of their away games finishing over 1.5 goals. I'll then work out my predicted odds and if the odds look in my favour then I'll have a punt. I need to do some backtesting though and carry out some more research. I think after re-reading what I just wrote I'm also being far to simplistic and need to find more of an 'edge'!
I've also knocked the pre race horse trading on the head (again). For quite a while I was trying to use the Ninjatrader charting software, this shows the price of the horses and enables you to setup various 'indicators' showing when a price will drift or steam. If only it was that easy! After well over a year now I've put an end to that particular method of trading and am of the opinion that any trades I was placing based on the charts I was seeing were just random, some won (I thought I'd cracked it and just needed to replicate what I was doing) and some lost (bit more research needed). I've seen plenty of screenshots and videos showing when to trade based on the charts and indicators but these mean nothing really, I could sit there myself for an afternoon video'ing my trades and charts and sooner or later I'd hit a good solid trade that matched up with the chart I was looking at, I could then post it on YouTube or wherever and give the impression that it was 'this easy' to trade using charts and indicators. Until I sit there for an afternoon next to someone trading using charting software and see them come out with a profit then I'll fail to believe that it is a reliable method of trading the horses. There, glad I got that off my chest!
On to the positives and the Return On Investment for the M3 football selections now stands at a very reasonable +13.05%, not long to go till the end of the season(s) now and I look forward to continuing with these next season. I'm hoping Mr Cassini will let me join in with his prediction league as well ?!
I've just finished Steve Palmer's book, what a fantastic read, not really for the betting purist, Mr Cassini would have kittens over some of the bets being placed and the logic behind them but a great read all the same! It's whetted my appetite to venture into the world of golf betting and I've managed to download a whole heap of statistics for the players and I now plan to fire up some neural networks software I have and see if I can come up with anything meaningful, it'll be interesting to do anyway if nothing else.

M3 Football Selection For 29.04.12

Excellent day yesterday for the M3 selections with 3 of the 6 coming in, that'll teach me to doubt them due to it being late in the season! Just the one selection today:

Zaragoza 2.38 3.2
Ath Bilbao 2.6 2.2
Draw 5.15 3.4
Home game count : 19. Away game count : 39
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.2

 

M3 Football Selections For 28.04.12

Plenty of selections today although I cant say I like the look of any of them. Obviously odds at this time of the season are slewed by teams needing to win playing teams with no motivation etc. It's impossible (or would be very hard!) to come up with a model that incorporates the sort of logic to determine teams with something to play for still. I think one thing I will do during the summer though is go back and remove the last few weeks of each season from the back testing to see how the results come out.

Anyway, heres todays selections, I've done them more in hope than anything!

Bayern Munich 1.72 1.7
Stuttgart 2.8 4.75
Draw 16.07 3.75
Home game count : 31. Away game count : 14
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.75

M'gladbach 1.81 1.73
Augsburg 3.2 4.5
Draw 7.37 3.75
Home game count : 29. Away game count : 16
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.5

Sunderland 2.8 2.0
Bolton 5.08 3.75
Draw 2.24 3.5
Home game count : 56. Away game count : 61
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.5

Watford 2.0 2.88
Middlesbrough 3.59 2.38
Draw 4.52 3.4
Home game count : 108. Away game count : 122
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 2.88

Oxford 2.74 2.2
Southend 2.36 3.2
Draw 4.74 3.4
Home game count : 93. Away game count : 85
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.2

Torquay 2.82 2.2
Crewe 2.39 3.2
Draw 4.41 3.4
Home game count : 48. Away game count : 74
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.2

 

M3 Football Selection For 24.04.12

Apologies for the late posting but have only just managed to sort this out and this is an early kick off (17:30), in fact its just kicked off..!!

Atalanta 3.6 2.1
Chievo 2.89 4.75
Draw 2.66 2.63
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 4.75

M3 Football Selection For 23.04.12

Just a quick post with a selection for the game over in Spain later. These selections are just treading water at the moment and need a couple of decent priced winners to kick on a little!

Osasuna 1.92 3.1
Malaga 3.5 2.3
Draw 5.15 3.3
*** Back Home at odds in excess of 3.1